Sept 24 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
A mood of caution may hang over Asian stocks on Tuesday,
following a fairly directionless U.S. session the day before and
as investors brace for an interest rate decision in Australia
and remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.
That said, the slender gains eked out on Wall Street kept
the S&P 500 within 0.3% of last week's record high, and pushed
the Dow to a new peak of 42,190 points. The feel-good factor
from last week's Fed move has not faded just yet.
Indeed, the bullish case for risky assets may have gotten a
boost on Monday from Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee, who
said the Fed's policy rate is still "hundreds" of basis points
above neutral and that there are "a lot of cuts" to come over
the next year.
This follows surprisingly dovish comments on Friday from Fed
Governor Christopher Waller, who said inflation is softening
much faster than he previously thought and August PCE inflation
could be very low.
But there's often a fine line between deep rate cuts
encouraging investors to load up on risk, and concerns over why
policy is being loosened so much so quickly. This is why all
economic activity and labor market data between now and the
Fed's next meeting will be scrutinized so closely.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is the next major central bank
to deliver its latest policy decision and guidance. With
inflation running above the central bank's 2%-3% target range
and the job market looking strong, there is virtually no chance
of a rate cut yet.
All 43 economists polled by Reuters expect the RBA to keep
its cash rate on hold at 4.35% on Tuesday, and 40 of them say
there will be no move on rates this year.
Aussie swaps markets are attaching a roughly two-in-three
chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the end of this year, and
imply a full 100 bps of easing next year - significantly less
than all G10 central banks except the Bank of Japan and Swiss
National Bank.
The BOJ is the only major central bank raising rates, and
investors will be looking to a speech from Governor Kazuo Ueda
on Tuesday for clues on the pace and extent of tightening. The
BOJ left rates unchanged on Friday and signaled it is in no rush
to raise them again.
The People's Bank of China, meanwhile, injected 14-day
liquidity into the financial system on Monday for the first time
in months, and at a lower rate than before. But investors will
need a lot of convincing that Beijing's stimulus efforts will be
enough to fight off deflation and revive growth.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to Asian markets on Tuesday:
- Australia interest rate decision
- BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks
- Japan flash PMIs (September)