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MORNING BID ASIA-Policy spotlight falls on RBA, BOJ's Ueda
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MORNING BID ASIA-Policy spotlight falls on RBA, BOJ's Ueda
Sep 24, 2024 4:50 AM

Sept 24 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

A mood of caution may hang over Asian stocks on Tuesday,

following a fairly directionless U.S. session the day before and

as investors brace for an interest rate decision in Australia

and remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.

That said, the slender gains eked out on Wall Street kept

the S&P 500 within 0.3% of last week's record high, and pushed

the Dow to a new peak of 42,190 points. The feel-good factor

from last week's Fed move has not faded just yet.

Indeed, the bullish case for risky assets may have gotten a

boost on Monday from Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee, who

said the Fed's policy rate is still "hundreds" of basis points

above neutral and that there are "a lot of cuts" to come over

the next year.

This follows surprisingly dovish comments on Friday from Fed

Governor Christopher Waller, who said inflation is softening

much faster than he previously thought and August PCE inflation

could be very low.

But there's often a fine line between deep rate cuts

encouraging investors to load up on risk, and concerns over why

policy is being loosened so much so quickly. This is why all

economic activity and labor market data between now and the

Fed's next meeting will be scrutinized so closely.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is the next major central bank

to deliver its latest policy decision and guidance. With

inflation running above the central bank's 2%-3% target range

and the job market looking strong, there is virtually no chance

of a rate cut yet.

All 43 economists polled by Reuters expect the RBA to keep

its cash rate on hold at 4.35% on Tuesday, and 40 of them say

there will be no move on rates this year.

Aussie swaps markets are attaching a roughly two-in-three

chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the end of this year, and

imply a full 100 bps of easing next year - significantly less

than all G10 central banks except the Bank of Japan and Swiss

National Bank.

The BOJ is the only major central bank raising rates, and

investors will be looking to a speech from Governor Kazuo Ueda

on Tuesday for clues on the pace and extent of tightening. The

BOJ left rates unchanged on Friday and signaled it is in no rush

to raise them again.

The People's Bank of China, meanwhile, injected 14-day

liquidity into the financial system on Monday for the first time

in months, and at a lower rate than before. But investors will

need a lot of convincing that Beijing's stimulus efforts will be

enough to fight off deflation and revive growth.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to Asian markets on Tuesday:

- Australia interest rate decision

- BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks

- Japan flash PMIs (September)

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