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MORNING BID ASIA-Political, market volatility spice markets up
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MORNING BID ASIA-Political, market volatility spice markets up
Jun 4, 2024 3:25 PM

June 5 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Investor sentiment is fragile as Asian markets reach the

mid-point of the week, with bubbling angst and political

volatility across the emerging world compounding deepening

concern over U.S. and global economic growth.

Indian assets, in particular, have been on a wild ride this

week in response to the country's general election result, a

strong safety bid is driving the Japanese yen higher, and

regional stocks are now down four out of the last five days.

That's the backdrop to a jam-packed economic calendar across

the region, which includes: Australian first quarter GDP,

revised GDP data from South Korea, service sector purchasing

managers index data from Australia, China and India, as well as

inflation from Thailand and the Philippines.

These indicators will go a long way to setting investors'

policy expectations for the region. Rate cut hopes are also

likely to mount if the prospects for greater Fed easing continue

to grow - almost 50 basis points of U.S. rate cuts this year are

now being priced in, up from around 30 bps last week.

The latest indicator to suggest the U.S. economy is cooling

was the 'JOLTS' report that showed job openings fell more than

expected in April, pushing the number of available jobs per

job-seeker to its lowest in nearly three years.

Wall Street ended mostly flat, despite Treasury yields

falling for a fourth day. Equity bulls might argue that Wall

Street has held up well in the face of renewed growth concerns,

but riskier markets will need more than that.

What does Wednesday have in store for Indian markets? Stocks

surged 3.4% to new highs on Monday after exit polls suggested

Prime Minister Narendra Modi would extend his majority, but

tumbled 5.7% on Tuesday as it became clear he would actually

lose it.

Analysts at Barclays reckon market reverberations will be

felt for a while yet, a premium will be put back into Indian

bonds, and the central bank will maintain its presence in the FX

market to limit volatility and weakness in the rupee.

Volatility in the yen is also picking up, with short-term

implied volatility in dollar/yen on Wednesday jumping the most

in a month as the dollar tumbled below 155.00 yen.

If there is a safe-haven bid in FX right now, it looks to be

going to the yen, which has the potential support of the world's

largest repatriation flow.

Japan is the world's largest creditor with a net $3.36

trillion invested overseas, more than half of that in equity and

debt portfolio assets. Even a sliver of that brought back home

can lift the yen.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Wednesday:

- Australia GDP (Q1)

- Indian market volatility

- China, India, Australia services PMIs (May)

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