May 2 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Asia gets back up toward full speed on Thursday after many
markets were closed for the May Day holiday, with the U.S. Fed's
guidance, a surging yen and manufacturing PMIs from across the
continent all serving as potential market sign posts.
Asia's economic calendar is jam-packed on Thursday, with
highlights including: manufacturing PMIs from seven countries,
consumer inflation from South Korea and Indonesia, Hong Kong's
first quarter GDP, Australian trade figures, and consumer
confidence from Japan.
Moves in U.S. trading on Wednesday will likely set the early
market tone - Wall Street gyrated, yields tumbled and the dollar
fell after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said an interest rate hike
was "unlikely", and that his baseline scenario is still for
inflation to cool and pave the way for lower interest rates.
This came after the Fed announced a more aggressive tapering of
its quantitative tightening program than had been expected.
Taken together, the overarching signal was dovish.
Treasuries and the dollar played ball, but Wall Street
didn't - stocks surged as much as 1.5% on Powell's comments
before the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed in the red.
Will Powell's dovish stance, certainly relative to the
hawkish drum beat that had dominated markets in recent days, get
investors dancing to a more upbeat tune?
Global stocks had kicked off the new month on Wednesday on
the defensive, as doubts over the U.S. economy's resilience,
high bond yields and some U.S. earnings misses sapped risk
appetite.
Some of that gloom may lift, if only temporarily.
There may also have been a few sighs of relief at the Bank of
Japan and Ministry of Finance in Tokyo - the dollar's fall
relieves pressure on the yen, and by extension, pressure for
further yen-buying intervention from Japanese authorities.
Indeed, the yen staged an extraordinary rally in late U.S.
trade on Wednesday, strengthening more than 2% past where it was
just before the BOJ's policy decision last Friday.
Zooming out from Wednesday's Fed frenzy, and the
extraordinary upward shift in implied U.S. rates this year is
being widely felt - easing expectations around the world have
been pared back, and rates in Australia, for example, are more
likely to be raised this year than cut.
One central bank that has raised rates is Bank Indonesia,
with its surprise move last month. Sticky inflation numbers on
Thursday could bolster expectations of further tightening -
rates markets currently expect another quarter-point increase by
the summer.
South Korea's annual inflation rate, meanwhile, is seen
slowing slightly to 3.0% - probably not enough of a decline to
move the dial on the Bank of Korea's rate outlook.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Thursday:
- Manufacturing PMIs (April)
- South Korea, Indonesia CPI inflation (April)
- Japan consumer confidence (April)