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MORNING BID ASIA-Processing Biden's withdrawal from November election
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MORNING BID ASIA-Processing Biden's withdrawal from November election
Jul 21, 2024 3:07 PM

July 22 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets by Noel Randewich.

Markets face a new U.S. electoral calculus after U.S. President

Joe Biden's abrupt announcement Sunday that he will end his

campaign against former President Donald Trump for reelection.

Friday's global cyber disruption was a factor in the S&P 500

and Nasdaq posting their worst weeks since April. It was not

obvious before exactly what the "Trump trade" was or its overall

impact given the focus on Fed policy and other variables. But

now investors everywhere will scramble to figure out how to play

the sudden uncertainty.

Investors may still be licking their wounds as Asian

financial markets gear up after a week that saw worries about

Taiwan, global trade and semiconductors rattle tech stocks and

ripple across other sectors.

The health of the world's second largest economy is in focus

after a key Communist Party meeting last week did little to

stoke optimism, and as expectations solidify that Trump will

return to the White House.

Pressure for deep changes in how the China's economy

functions has risen this year, with consumer and business

sentiment near record lows domestically.

China's export dominance has been accentuated by solidifying

expectations Trump will win the November U.S. presidential

election after the former president formally accepted the

Republican Party's nomination.

Asia financial markets open after a dismal week for global

stocks that saw MSCI's global index suffer its

worst week since April, in large part over worries about trade

disruptions, including additional restrictions by Washington on

semiconductor sales to China.

While Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him

at the top of the Democrat's ticket, it's not yet clear who the

party will select. On politics betting website PredictIt,

contracts for Harris being the candidate are priced at 83 cents.

Contracts for a Trump victory over Harris at the polls are

trading at 61 cents, with a potential $1 payout.

Trump has suggested he would impose tariffs of 60% or higher on

all Chinese goods, and his choice of populist Ohio Senator J.D.

Vance as his running mate provides fresh evidence of what would

be a tough U.S. stance on China.

Taiwan must rely on itself for defense given the threat it faces

from China, Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said on Friday,

responding to criticism from Trump that sent global chip stocks

skidding on Wednesday.

In Japan, core inflation accelerated for a second straight month

in June, data showed on Friday, extending a more than two-year

run above the central bank's 2% target. That kept alive market

expectations of a near-term interest rate hike, although most

economists expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to hold off on raising

rates at its July 30-31 policy meeting as soft consumption

weighs on a fragile economy.

Dollar/yen hardly moved on Friday, wrapping up U.S. trade at

157.50. The BOJ is also wrestling with a weak yen that has

crippled households by making food and fuel more expensive.

Currency traders will be closely watching the yen after

several suspected interventions by the country's central bank to

prop it up already this month.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to Asian markets:

- China's 1-year loan prime rate (July)

- Singapore CPI (June)

- Taiwan export orders (June)

- New Zealand trade balance (June)

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