July 22 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets by Noel Randewich.
Markets face a new U.S. electoral calculus after U.S. President
Joe Biden's abrupt announcement Sunday that he will end his
campaign against former President Donald Trump for reelection.
Friday's global cyber disruption was a factor in the S&P 500
and Nasdaq posting their worst weeks since April. It was not
obvious before exactly what the "Trump trade" was or its overall
impact given the focus on Fed policy and other variables. But
now investors everywhere will scramble to figure out how to play
the sudden uncertainty.
Investors may still be licking their wounds as Asian
financial markets gear up after a week that saw worries about
Taiwan, global trade and semiconductors rattle tech stocks and
ripple across other sectors.
The health of the world's second largest economy is in focus
after a key Communist Party meeting last week did little to
stoke optimism, and as expectations solidify that Trump will
return to the White House.
Pressure for deep changes in how the China's economy
functions has risen this year, with consumer and business
sentiment near record lows domestically.
China's export dominance has been accentuated by solidifying
expectations Trump will win the November U.S. presidential
election after the former president formally accepted the
Republican Party's nomination.
Asia financial markets open after a dismal week for global
stocks that saw MSCI's global index suffer its
worst week since April, in large part over worries about trade
disruptions, including additional restrictions by Washington on
semiconductor sales to China.
While Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him
at the top of the Democrat's ticket, it's not yet clear who the
party will select. On politics betting website PredictIt,
contracts for Harris being the candidate are priced at 83 cents.
Contracts for a Trump victory over Harris at the polls are
trading at 61 cents, with a potential $1 payout.
Trump has suggested he would impose tariffs of 60% or higher on
all Chinese goods, and his choice of populist Ohio Senator J.D.
Vance as his running mate provides fresh evidence of what would
be a tough U.S. stance on China.
Taiwan must rely on itself for defense given the threat it faces
from China, Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said on Friday,
responding to criticism from Trump that sent global chip stocks
skidding on Wednesday.
In Japan, core inflation accelerated for a second straight month
in June, data showed on Friday, extending a more than two-year
run above the central bank's 2% target. That kept alive market
expectations of a near-term interest rate hike, although most
economists expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to hold off on raising
rates at its July 30-31 policy meeting as soft consumption
weighs on a fragile economy.
Dollar/yen hardly moved on Friday, wrapping up U.S. trade at
157.50. The BOJ is also wrestling with a weak yen that has
crippled households by making food and fuel more expensive.
Currency traders will be closely watching the yen after
several suspected interventions by the country's central bank to
prop it up already this month.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to Asian markets:
- China's 1-year loan prime rate (July)
- Singapore CPI (June)
- Taiwan export orders (June)
- New Zealand trade balance (June)