Feb 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
There's no shortage of market-moving news in Asia on Tuesday,
with an Australian interest rate decision, China's tech boom and
sizzling Japanese GDP figures front and center for investors,
against a backdrop of unfolding geopolitical drama around
U.S.-Europe relations and the Russia-Ukraine war.
On the economic front, the main event locally will be the
Reserve Bank of Australia's expected quarter-point cut to its
cash rate to 4.10%, its first reduction in over four years.
Easing inflation has opened the door for a rate-cutting
cycle, but only a shallow one - money markets are pricing in
only 50 basis points of additional easing this year after
Tuesday's move.
If the RBA does lower rates on Tuesday, it will be one of
the last G10 central banks to do so. Norway's central bank
hasn't started easing yet, while the Bank of Japan is raising
rates.
That cycle could accelerate, after figures on Monday showed
Japan's economy grew at an annualized 2.8% pace in the
October-December quarter, nearly three times faster than the
consensus 1.0% in a Reuters poll. The highest forecast in the
survey of 17 economists was 2.2%.
The yen and Japanese Government Bond yields are on the rise.
Recent inflation and wage growth data have also surprised to the
upside, but the Bank of Japan will be cautious about raising
rates after decades of deflation and ultra-loose policy.
Two-year and 10-year JGB yields are already the highest
since 2008 and have risen sharply in recent months, roughly
doubling since September. These are big moves, and the impact on
businesses, households and investors remains to be seen.
The rebound in Chinese markets continues, meanwhile, with
tech shares listed in Hong Kong hitting a three-year high on
Monday as President Xi Jinping sat down with top tech leaders in
Beijing. The Hang Seng tech index is up more than 30% in a
month.
The symbolism of Xi's rare meeting with tech leaders is
powerful, reflecting policymakers' worries over the economy and
China's technological development, and marks a sharp turnaround
from the regulatory clampdown on tech four years ago.
Shares in Baidu plunged on Monday, however, wiping $2.4
billion off its market value after the search engine giant's
founder was not spotted at the meeting.
These market moves, in their own ways seismic in nature,
come against truly seismic geopolitical developments around
America's ties with Europe and President Donald Trump's role in
brokering a truce between Ukraine and Russia with Russian
President Vladimir Putin.
A peace deal - even a 'dirty deal that clearly favors
Russia', in the words of Danske Bank - may boost risk appetite,
and weigh on the dollar and oil in the short term. But the wider
implications of a fracturing of 80 years of solid U.S.-European
relations since World War Two could raise risk premia across
markets in the long term.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to Asian markets on Tuesday:
- Australian interest rate decision
- Singapore budget (fiscal year 2025)
- Hong Kong unemployment (January)