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MORNING BID ASIA-RBA poised, China tech booms, Japan GDP sizzles
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MORNING BID ASIA-RBA poised, China tech booms, Japan GDP sizzles
Feb 17, 2025 2:41 PM

Feb 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

There's no shortage of market-moving news in Asia on Tuesday,

with an Australian interest rate decision, China's tech boom and

sizzling Japanese GDP figures front and center for investors,

against a backdrop of unfolding geopolitical drama around

U.S.-Europe relations and the Russia-Ukraine war.

On the economic front, the main event locally will be the

Reserve Bank of Australia's expected quarter-point cut to its

cash rate to 4.10%, its first reduction in over four years.

Easing inflation has opened the door for a rate-cutting

cycle, but only a shallow one - money markets are pricing in

only 50 basis points of additional easing this year after

Tuesday's move.

If the RBA does lower rates on Tuesday, it will be one of

the last G10 central banks to do so. Norway's central bank

hasn't started easing yet, while the Bank of Japan is raising

rates.

That cycle could accelerate, after figures on Monday showed

Japan's economy grew at an annualized 2.8% pace in the

October-December quarter, nearly three times faster than the

consensus 1.0% in a Reuters poll. The highest forecast in the

survey of 17 economists was 2.2%.

The yen and Japanese Government Bond yields are on the rise.

Recent inflation and wage growth data have also surprised to the

upside, but the Bank of Japan will be cautious about raising

rates after decades of deflation and ultra-loose policy.

Two-year and 10-year JGB yields are already the highest

since 2008 and have risen sharply in recent months, roughly

doubling since September. These are big moves, and the impact on

businesses, households and investors remains to be seen.

The rebound in Chinese markets continues, meanwhile, with

tech shares listed in Hong Kong hitting a three-year high on

Monday as President Xi Jinping sat down with top tech leaders in

Beijing. The Hang Seng tech index is up more than 30% in a

month.

The symbolism of Xi's rare meeting with tech leaders is

powerful, reflecting policymakers' worries over the economy and

China's technological development, and marks a sharp turnaround

from the regulatory clampdown on tech four years ago.

Shares in Baidu plunged on Monday, however, wiping $2.4

billion off its market value after the search engine giant's

founder was not spotted at the meeting.

These market moves, in their own ways seismic in nature,

come against truly seismic geopolitical developments around

America's ties with Europe and President Donald Trump's role in

brokering a truce between Ukraine and Russia with Russian

President Vladimir Putin.

A peace deal - even a 'dirty deal that clearly favors

Russia', in the words of Danske Bank - may boost risk appetite,

and weigh on the dollar and oil in the short term. But the wider

implications of a fracturing of 80 years of solid U.S.-European

relations since World War Two could raise risk premia across

markets in the long term.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to Asian markets on Tuesday:

- Australian interest rate decision

- Singapore budget (fiscal year 2025)

- Hong Kong unemployment (January)

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