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MORNING BID ASIA-RBA up next, Hang Seng eyes 11th rise
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MORNING BID ASIA-RBA up next, Hang Seng eyes 11th rise
May 6, 2024 3:02 PM

May 7 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Asian markets are rising on the back of a subdued dollar, lower

U.S. bond yields and looser financial conditions that the more

benign outlook for U.S. interest rates lately has delivered, and

Tuesday looks like being another positive day for risk assets.

Buying momentum should be strong after another day of solid

gains on Wall Street, and the bullishness across local markets

is palpable - China opened strongly after last week's holiday,

volatility in Japan's currency markets has subsided, and Hong

Kong stocks are on their best run in six years.

The Hang Seng has now been up 10 days on the trot, gaining a

remarkable 15% in the process. It is probably due for a down day

but who knows - maybe it has enough juice to test the record 14

consecutive days in the green from January 2018.

Inflation data from the Philippines and Taiwan, Japanese

service sector PMI, and the latest international foreign

exchange reserve holdings from several countries, including

China, are all highlights on Tuesday's calendar.

The main event, though, is the Reserve Bank of Australia's

policy decision. Or, more accurately, the guidance offered by

Governor Michele Bullock in her press conference after the bank

keeps its cash rate on hold again at 4.35%.

That's the expectation of all but one of the 37 economists

surveyed in a Reuters poll - the other predicted a quarter

point rate cut hopes gradually fade.

At the RBA's last meeting in mid-March, policymakers watered

down their tightening bias, although Bullock declined to say

whether policy has shifted to neutral, saying risks were "finely

balanced", and pushed back immediate rate cuts.

Since then, U.S. rate cut expectations have receded further,

the Australian dollar has recovered some ground, and domestic

inflation has not cooled as much as analysts or policymakers had

hoped.

The consensus view from economists is still for the cash

rate to be cut by a quarter point in September, but money

markets are leaning the other way and are currently attaching a

50-50 chance of a quarter point hike in September.

Elsewhere, official figures are expected to show a pick up

in consumer price inflation in the Philippines with the annual

rate rising to 4.1% in April from 3.7% in March - not the

direction of travel the central bank wants to see.

Price pressures in Taiwan, however, are more closely

influenced by dynamics in China, where deflation has been more

of a threat to the economy recently than hot inflation.

China releases its latest official FX reserves figures,

which will be closely watched for signs Beijing may be

offloading some of its U.S. Treasuries to support the yuan.

Total reserves are seen dipping to $3.225 trillion in April from

$3.246 trillion in March.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Tuesday:

- Australia central bank policy decision

- Japan services PMI (April)

- Philippines inflation (April)

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