Feb 4 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
First the stick, then the carrot.
Investors breathed a sigh of relief on Monday after some of
U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs announced over
the weekend were put on ice, allowing stocks and non-dollar
currencies to claw back losses and regain some poise.
This should help bring some degree of calm to markets in
Asia on Tuesday, assuming there is no left-field announcement
from Trump in the next few hours. Given the events of the few
days though, that may be a risky assumption.
The steep fall across Asian markets on Monday was
understandable after Trump on Saturday slapped 25% import
tariffs on goods from Mexico, the same levy on non-energy
imports from Canada and 10% duties on purchases from China.
U.S. markets were then whiplashed later in the day after
Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said the Mexican
tariffs would be put on hold for a month while talks between the
two countries towards a "deal" got underway.
There's unlikely to be any official reaction from Beijing to
the unilateral tariffs before Wednesday, when China reopens
after the Lunar New Year holiday. China's U.N. envoy Fu Cong did
say on Monday, however, that China could be forced into taking
counter measures.
One option many observers say Beijing may pursue is allowing
its currency to fall significantly, which would offset the
tariffs. Pressure on the yuan could be pretty intense when
trading reopens later this week - the offshore yuan traded in
Hong Kong hit a record low against the dollar on Monday before
clawing back some of these losses.
Asian stocks got beaten down pretty badly on Monday. The
MSCI Asia ex-Japan index, the Nikkei 225 and other major
benchmark indices posted their biggest declines in several
months, but Japanese futures are pointing to a rebound of more
than 1% on Tuesday.
For what it's worth, market expectations for U.S. interest
rates this year have not budged much at all. Investors still
expect two more quarter-point cuts, the first coming in July
rather than June.
U.S. Treasury yields fell on Monday, surprising some
analysts who would have expected the opposite reaction due to
the expected inflationary impact of tariffs. A lower dollar and
U.S. bond yields should bode well for Asia on Tuesday.
Markets in Asia could get some direction from Japan, where
the corporate reporting season is underway. The list of
companies releasing results on Tuesday include heavyweights
Panasonic, Nintendo, Mitsui, Mitsubishi UFJ and Sumitomo.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Tuesday:
- U.S. tariff fallout
- Japan corporate earnings
- Offshore Chinese stocks, yuan trading in Hong Kong
(By Jamie McGeever
)