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MORNING BID ASIA-Seeing the positives in fog of uncertainty
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MORNING BID ASIA-Seeing the positives in fog of uncertainty
Feb 5, 2025 2:15 PM

Feb 6 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Famous last words, but an air of resilience is enveloping world

markets.

Fears of a global trade war are rife, shares in some of the

U.S. 'Big Tech' firms are slumping, safe-haven gold has climbed

to another all-time high and the Japanese yen is marching

higher. Yet risk assets refuse to lie down.

This resilience - or 'bouncebackability' - can partly be

explained by ample market liquidity, and lower dollar and U.S.

Treasury yields. It's a combination that loosens U.S. and global

financial conditions and spurs risk-taking activity across

markets.

There's a danger, however, that investors' benign view of

falling U.S. bond yields suddenly flips, and they see it has a

worrying reflection of deteriorating growth or a weakening labor

market. Or both.

If that happens, the air of resilience could quickly become

an air of despondency. U.S. labor market data on Friday, or an

unexpected announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump on

tariffs may provide the trigger, but until then, investors'

glass seems to be half full.

Shares in Google's parent company Alphabet fell 7% on

Wednesday - their worst day in a year - and AMD shares tumbled

6%, yet the Nasdaq recovered opening losses to end the day

slightly higher. The 'FAANG' index of major tech shares closed

in the green to end near its recent all-time high.

Attention in Asia remains fixed on China and its next

response to Trump's 10% tariffs on Chinese imports, after it

formally launched a dispute at the World Trade Organization.

Chinese markets were relatively calm on Wednesday after the

Lunar New Year holiday, but the yuan is under pressure.

The spread between the central bank's daily dollar/yuan

fixing and the spot market rate popped back up, and a further

widening of only 4 basis points would take it back to recent

historic highs just above 14 bps.

Elsewhere in currencies, the yen rallied more than 1% on

Wednesday to an eight-week high against the dollar after strong

national wage figures prompted investors to price in tighter

Bank of Japan monetary policy.

That move could accelerate if BOJ board member Naoki Tamura,

who has called for raising short-term rates at least to 1.0%,

delivers customary hawkish remarks in a speech and news

conference on Thursday.

Japan's earnings season rolls on and among the companies

reporting on Thursday are Mitsubishi, Nikon and Nippon Steel.

Auto shares could be sensitive to further fallout from the news

that the proposed Nissan-Honda merger may not go through.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to Asian markets on Thursday:

- Australia trade (December)

- Thailand inflation (January)

- South Korea current account (December)

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