Dec 4 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
A sudden burst of political chaos in South Korea has put
investors in Asia on the defensive, pointing to a cautious
market open across the continent on Wednesday despite Wall
Street's resilience the previous day.
South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law on
Tuesday to thwart "anti-state forces" among his opponents,
creating the most serious challenge to the country's democracy
since the 1980s, only to lift it hours later after lawmakers
rejected the move and protesters gathered outside parliament.
The initial declaration had an immediate impact on the won,
slamming it to a 2-year low against the dollar. At one point, it
was down 2% and set for its biggest one-day loss since Nov. 9,
2016, the day after the 2016 U.S. election that swept Donald
Trump to power and started the clock ticking on a looming trade
war with China.
This cemented the won's unwanted status as the
worst-performing major Asian currency against the dollar this
year, bringing its year-to-date losses to nearly 10%. The
benchmark Kospi is also one of the worst-performing equity
indexes in Asia this year, down nearly 6% year-to-date at
Tuesday's close.
Yoon's about face, however, appears to have restored a sense of
calm. The won is still weaker but reclaimed more than half its
losses from earlier on Tuesday. Kospi futures traded on the
Eurex exchange are pointing to a fall at the stock market open
in Seoul of only around 0.3%.
Elsewhere in Asia, India's rupee is at a record low, while
China's yuan is at a 13-month low and seemingly poised for a
break below 7.30 per dollar, as traders speculate Beijing is
allowing it to slide as trade tensions with Washington heat up.
China on Tuesday announced a ban on exports of 'dual-use items'
related to key minerals gallium, germanium, antimony and
superhard materials to the United States. This came 24 hours
after the U.S. launched a third crackdown in three years on
China's semiconductor industry, curbing exports to 140 firms.
If volatility in key assets across Asia is spiking, U.S.
market volatility right now is pretty subdued. The VIX 'fear
index' on Tuesday hit its lowest since July, and the MOVE index
of implied volatility in U.S. Treasuries has tumbled since the
U.S. presidential election to a two-month low.
The Asian calendar on Wednesday sees the release of Australian
GDP, Thai inflation, and a raft of purchasing managers index
reports for November, including China's Caixin services PMI.
Australia's economy is expected to have expanded at a 0.4%
pace in the July-September period, twice the rate of the
previous quarter, and at a 1.1% year-on-year pace, a marginal
uptick from the 1.0% annual growth registered in Q2.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Wednesday:
- Reaction to South Korea political instability
- Australia GDP (Q3)
- PMIs, including China's 'unofficial' services (November)