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MORNING BID ASIA-South Korea's martial law confusion deepens caution
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MORNING BID ASIA-South Korea's martial law confusion deepens caution
Dec 3, 2024 2:17 PM

Dec 4 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

A sudden burst of political chaos in South Korea has put

investors in Asia on the defensive, pointing to a cautious

market open across the continent on Wednesday despite Wall

Street's resilience the previous day.

South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law on

Tuesday to thwart "anti-state forces" among his opponents,

creating the most serious challenge to the country's democracy

since the 1980s, only to lift it hours later after lawmakers

rejected the move and protesters gathered outside parliament.

The initial declaration had an immediate impact on the won,

slamming it to a 2-year low against the dollar. At one point, it

was down 2% and set for its biggest one-day loss since Nov. 9,

2016, the day after the 2016 U.S. election that swept Donald

Trump to power and started the clock ticking on a looming trade

war with China.

This cemented the won's unwanted status as the

worst-performing major Asian currency against the dollar this

year, bringing its year-to-date losses to nearly 10%. The

benchmark Kospi is also one of the worst-performing equity

indexes in Asia this year, down nearly 6% year-to-date at

Tuesday's close.

Yoon's about face, however, appears to have restored a sense of

calm. The won is still weaker but reclaimed more than half its

losses from earlier on Tuesday. Kospi futures traded on the

Eurex exchange are pointing to a fall at the stock market open

in Seoul of only around 0.3%.

Elsewhere in Asia, India's rupee is at a record low, while

China's yuan is at a 13-month low and seemingly poised for a

break below 7.30 per dollar, as traders speculate Beijing is

allowing it to slide as trade tensions with Washington heat up.

China on Tuesday announced a ban on exports of 'dual-use items'

related to key minerals gallium, germanium, antimony and

superhard materials to the United States. This came 24 hours

after the U.S. launched a third crackdown in three years on

China's semiconductor industry, curbing exports to 140 firms.

If volatility in key assets across Asia is spiking, U.S.

market volatility right now is pretty subdued. The VIX 'fear

index' on Tuesday hit its lowest since July, and the MOVE index

of implied volatility in U.S. Treasuries has tumbled since the

U.S. presidential election to a two-month low.

The Asian calendar on Wednesday sees the release of Australian

GDP, Thai inflation, and a raft of purchasing managers index

reports for November, including China's Caixin services PMI.

Australia's economy is expected to have expanded at a 0.4%

pace in the July-September period, twice the rate of the

previous quarter, and at a 1.1% year-on-year pace, a marginal

uptick from the 1.0% annual growth registered in Q2.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Wednesday:

- Reaction to South Korea political instability

- Australia GDP (Q3)

- PMIs, including China's 'unofficial' services (November)

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