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MORNING BID ASIA-Spiking yields puncture risk appetite, Japan warns on yen
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MORNING BID ASIA-Spiking yields puncture risk appetite, Japan warns on yen
Jan 7, 2025 2:16 PM

Jan 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Investors go into Wednesday's market trading in Asia with their

appetite for risk smothered by the rise in global bond yields.

As ever, U.S. Treasury yields are front and center for

markets that are more exposed than most to dollar-denominated

debt and U.S. borrowing costs. Especially on medium- to

longer-dated maturities.

The 10-year U.S. yield is its highest in eight months, the

'2s/10s' curve is the steepest in nearly three years, and the

30-year yield is within 10 basis points of 5.00%. It has climbed

60 bps in a month.

Longer-dated yields are rising globally even though many

central banks are lowering policy rates - Britain's 30-year gilt

yield is the highest since 1998. The U.S. Treasury's sale on

Wednesday of $22 billion of 30-year bonds could have a major

impact on world markets.

There are times when signs of U.S. economic resilience lift

the global outlook and risk appetite picks up, but the release

of surprisingly strong U.S. job opening figures on Tuesday was

not one of them. It was a case of 'good news is bad news', U.S.

yields and the dollar rose, and stocks tumbled.

That's the global backdrop for Wednesday's trading, which is

likely to set the tone in Asia given how light the local

economic calendar is.

There is little sign that Japan's yen or China's yuan is

emerging from their recent funk, and currency traders in Asia

will be on heightened alert for intervention from Japan after

the dollar on Tuesday rose as high as 158.40 yen.

That's the highest since July last year and close to the

psychologically significant 160.00 yen level, and comes after

Japanese finance minister Katsunobu Kato on Tuesday warned

against what he said is speculative, one-sided yen selling.

Traders will note that a break of the 160 per dollar level

prompted yen-buying intervention from Japanese authorities last

year.

The weak yen helped the Nikkei rise 2% back above 40,000

points on Tuesday but futures are pointing to a fall of as much

as 1% at the open on Wednesday.

The news flow around China, meanwhile, is still on the bleak

side, offering investors little incentive to start buying beaten

down Chinese assets.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday doubled down on

his commitment to slap hefty tariffs on goods imported from

major trading partners, and figures on Tuesday showed China's FX

reserves fell by $64 billion in December. That was the biggest

monthly fall since April 2022, and one of the steepest since the

yuan slide and waves of capital flight in 2015-16

Chinese stocks are down 5% so far this year, significantly

underperforming their regional and global peers. The yuan is its

weakest against the dollar since September 2023, and Chinese

bond yields are collapsing.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Wednesday:

- Australia inflation (November)

- South Korea current account (November)

- Japan consumer confidence (December)

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