Jan 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Investors go into Wednesday's market trading in Asia with their
appetite for risk smothered by the rise in global bond yields.
As ever, U.S. Treasury yields are front and center for
markets that are more exposed than most to dollar-denominated
debt and U.S. borrowing costs. Especially on medium- to
longer-dated maturities.
The 10-year U.S. yield is its highest in eight months, the
'2s/10s' curve is the steepest in nearly three years, and the
30-year yield is within 10 basis points of 5.00%. It has climbed
60 bps in a month.
Longer-dated yields are rising globally even though many
central banks are lowering policy rates - Britain's 30-year gilt
yield is the highest since 1998. The U.S. Treasury's sale on
Wednesday of $22 billion of 30-year bonds could have a major
impact on world markets.
There are times when signs of U.S. economic resilience lift
the global outlook and risk appetite picks up, but the release
of surprisingly strong U.S. job opening figures on Tuesday was
not one of them. It was a case of 'good news is bad news', U.S.
yields and the dollar rose, and stocks tumbled.
That's the global backdrop for Wednesday's trading, which is
likely to set the tone in Asia given how light the local
economic calendar is.
There is little sign that Japan's yen or China's yuan is
emerging from their recent funk, and currency traders in Asia
will be on heightened alert for intervention from Japan after
the dollar on Tuesday rose as high as 158.40 yen.
That's the highest since July last year and close to the
psychologically significant 160.00 yen level, and comes after
Japanese finance minister Katsunobu Kato on Tuesday warned
against what he said is speculative, one-sided yen selling.
Traders will note that a break of the 160 per dollar level
prompted yen-buying intervention from Japanese authorities last
year.
The weak yen helped the Nikkei rise 2% back above 40,000
points on Tuesday but futures are pointing to a fall of as much
as 1% at the open on Wednesday.
The news flow around China, meanwhile, is still on the bleak
side, offering investors little incentive to start buying beaten
down Chinese assets.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday doubled down on
his commitment to slap hefty tariffs on goods imported from
major trading partners, and figures on Tuesday showed China's FX
reserves fell by $64 billion in December. That was the biggest
monthly fall since April 2022, and one of the steepest since the
yuan slide and waves of capital flight in 2015-16
Chinese stocks are down 5% so far this year, significantly
underperforming their regional and global peers. The yuan is its
weakest against the dollar since September 2023, and Chinese
bond yields are collapsing.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Wednesday:
- Australia inflation (November)
- South Korea current account (November)
- Japan consumer confidence (December)