July 30 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Stocks around the world on Monday continued from where they left
off on Friday, stemming the tide of last week's selling as
investors squared positions ahead of a wave of market-moving
economic data, policy decisions and earnings reports later in
the week.
There doesn't appear to be much on the immediate horizon to
give Asian assets a strong steer on Tuesday - Wall Street was
mixed, the dollar climbed and Treasury yields dipped -
suggesting regional markets will be relatively well-supported
but range-bound.
Japanese labor market data, housing and retail trade figures
from Australia, and a sprinkling of earnings reports, including
Standard Chartered, Nomura Holdings and Samsung are the main
regional events that investors will be looking out for.
Asian equities appear to have stopped the recent rot, with
some benchmark indices on Monday chalking up their best day in
two weeks - the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index rose 0.7%, the Hang
Seng rose 1.3%, and Japan's Nikkei jumped 2.1%.
That was the Nikkei's best day since April - an impressive
bounce from a three-month low, but it did follow eight straight
down days, its worst run in almost three years.
Can Asia take heart from U.S. and world stocks' performance
on Monday?
The recent rotation out of U.S. Big Tech into small caps
stalled, with the Russell 2000 heavily underperforming tech and
the Nasdaq more broadly. The S&P 500 barely rose 0.1% - a tiny
gain, but the first time in two weeks that the index has risen
two days in a row.
The Bank of Japan's policy decision on Wednesday looms
larger over Japanese assets. Sources have told Reuters that a
rate hike will be discussed and policymakers may also unveil a
plan to roughly halve its bond purchases in the coming years.
Money market pricing on the BOJ's move on rates still leans
toward a 10-basis point hike but tightening will be slow -
barely 20 bps of rate hikes are priced in by year end.
If policy 'normalization' in Japan is that gradual, the yen
will struggle to get much upward traction from Tokyo. It might
get more of a boost from the U.S. Federal Reserve and other
central banks cutting rates more aggressively than markets
currently expect.
U.S. rates futures traders are betting that the Fed will
stand pat on Wednesday, begin easing in September, and cut rates
by around 65 bps before the year is out. The Bank of England
meets on Thursday, and could cut rates.
The dollar rose to a two-week high against a basket of major
currencies on Monday, nudging through 154.00 yen as Wednesday's
Fed and BOJ meetings draw closer. Asian FX markets are mostly
subdued, while China's yuan is also taking a breather.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Tuesday:
- Japan unemployment rate (June)
- Australia building approvals (June)
- Samsung earnings (Q2)