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MORNING BID ASIA-The waiting game ahead of Fed, BOJ
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MORNING BID ASIA-The waiting game ahead of Fed, BOJ
Jul 29, 2024 3:14 PM

July 30 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Stocks around the world on Monday continued from where they left

off on Friday, stemming the tide of last week's selling as

investors squared positions ahead of a wave of market-moving

economic data, policy decisions and earnings reports later in

the week.

There doesn't appear to be much on the immediate horizon to

give Asian assets a strong steer on Tuesday - Wall Street was

mixed, the dollar climbed and Treasury yields dipped -

suggesting regional markets will be relatively well-supported

but range-bound.

Japanese labor market data, housing and retail trade figures

from Australia, and a sprinkling of earnings reports, including

Standard Chartered, Nomura Holdings and Samsung are the main

regional events that investors will be looking out for.

Asian equities appear to have stopped the recent rot, with

some benchmark indices on Monday chalking up their best day in

two weeks - the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index rose 0.7%, the Hang

Seng rose 1.3%, and Japan's Nikkei jumped 2.1%.

That was the Nikkei's best day since April - an impressive

bounce from a three-month low, but it did follow eight straight

down days, its worst run in almost three years.

Can Asia take heart from U.S. and world stocks' performance

on Monday?

The recent rotation out of U.S. Big Tech into small caps

stalled, with the Russell 2000 heavily underperforming tech and

the Nasdaq more broadly. The S&P 500 barely rose 0.1% - a tiny

gain, but the first time in two weeks that the index has risen

two days in a row.

The Bank of Japan's policy decision on Wednesday looms

larger over Japanese assets. Sources have told Reuters that a

rate hike will be discussed and policymakers may also unveil a

plan to roughly halve its bond purchases in the coming years.

Money market pricing on the BOJ's move on rates still leans

toward a 10-basis point hike but tightening will be slow -

barely 20 bps of rate hikes are priced in by year end.

If policy 'normalization' in Japan is that gradual, the yen

will struggle to get much upward traction from Tokyo. It might

get more of a boost from the U.S. Federal Reserve and other

central banks cutting rates more aggressively than markets

currently expect.

U.S. rates futures traders are betting that the Fed will

stand pat on Wednesday, begin easing in September, and cut rates

by around 65 bps before the year is out. The Bank of England

meets on Thursday, and could cut rates.

The dollar rose to a two-week high against a basket of major

currencies on Monday, nudging through 154.00 yen as Wednesday's

Fed and BOJ meetings draw closer. Asian FX markets are mostly

subdued, while China's yuan is also taking a breather.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Tuesday:

- Japan unemployment rate (June)

- Australia building approvals (June)

- Samsung earnings (Q2)

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