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MORNING BID ASIA-Time out beckons as China stimulus boost fades
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MORNING BID ASIA-Time out beckons as China stimulus boost fades
Oct 3, 2024 1:36 AM

Sept 26 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Asian markets could lose steam on Thursday following a sluggish

performance on Wall Street on Wednesday, and as the sugar high

from China's biggest economic and market stimulus package since

the pandemic earlier in the week shows signs of fading.

Higher U.S. bond yields across the curve and the dollar's

biggest rise in a month should limit investors' risk appetite.

That one-two combo is certainly weighing on the Japanese yen,

which goes into Thursday's session in Asia at a three-week low

near 145.00 per dollar.

The global growth and policy picture is pretty murky too, which

may give investors pause. Weak U.S. consumer confidence figures

have revived doubts about the U.S. "soft landing", while the

euro zone's growth and inflation outlook seems to be softening

by the day.

Economists at HSBC on Wednesday revised their European

Central Bank forecasts, and now expect 25 basis point rate cuts

at every meeting from October until April 2025. That would take

the benchmark deposit rate down to 2.25%.

Weakness in the euro zone should ring alarm bells for China,

given the strength of bilateral trade and financial ties. While

Chinese stocks leapt another 1.5% on Wednesday to a fresh

two-month high, they closed near the lows of the day.

Hong Kong stocks are on a roll - the Hang Seng is up 15% in

just two weeks - and the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index is its highest

since February 2022. Could both be ready for a time out?

The euro's slide and U.S. bond yield spike, meanwhile,

helped the dollar claw back some ground on Wednesday. Having

earlier flirted with a new 14-month low, the dollar index rose

0.4% to post its biggest daily gain in a month.

The greenback struggled more against emerging market

currencies though, and perhaps the most eye-catching move was by

the Chinese yuan.

It continued its impressive rally of the last couple of

months and rose for a sixth day against the dollar in spot

trading, its longest winning streak since January last year. The

offshore yuan, meanwhile, pierced 7.00 per dollar for the first

time also since January last year.

Indeed, since the one-day burst of global market volatility

on Aug. 5, China's yuan has appreciated more than 3% against the

U.S. dollar, a remarkable run given how tightly Beijing manages

the exchange rate.

Among the Asian economic indicators on deck on Thursday are

manufacturing data from Thailand, industrial production figures

from Singapore, and the latest snapshot of international trade

from Hong Kong.

On the policy side, the Bank of Japan releases minutes of

its July 30-31 policy meeting, and the Reserve Bank of Australia

publishes its Financial Stability Review.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to Asian markets on Thursday:

- BOJ minutes from July 30-31 policy meeting

- Singapore industrial production (August)

- Hong Kong trade (August)

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