June 28 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
A mood of caution hangs over Asian markets on Friday, the
last trading day of the quarter and half-way point in the year,
with investors likely to keep risk exposure to a minimum ahead
of U.S. inflation data later in the day and ahead of the
weekend.
That wariness may be enforced by headlines from the U.S.
presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump late on
Thursday, particularly on trade protectionism and tariffs on
imports from China.
Friday's Asian economic calendar is packed with top-tier
releases, including: Tokyo inflation, Japanese unemployment and
industrial production, South Korean industrial output and retail
sales, and trade and current account figures from Thailand.
Top among them is probably Tokyo inflation, which will give
an insight into wider price pressures in Japan and what the Bank
of Japan might do at its July 30 to 31 policy meeting.
Pressure is mounting on the BOJ to raise rates again or taper
its bond purchases, if for no other reason than to cool some of
the selling pressure on the yen and lift the currency from the
38-year low it hit against the dollar this week.
Policymakers have warned that tightening policy too much could
harm consumer spending and economic growth. But they also
continue to express their displeasure with the yen's relentless
depreciation.
They can't have it both ways.
Japanese authorities have not yet intervened to support the yen
this time around, but traders will be on high alert for action,
especially in the least liquid parts of the global trading day.
Economists polled by Reuters reckon core Tokyo inflation
edged up to 2.0% in June from 1.9% in May. Officials would
probably be comfortable with that, but so might yen bears, and
renewed selling is bound to sound the intervention alarm.
China's currency, meanwhile, also reaches the mid-year point
on the defensive, and on Thursday slipped to a new low for the
year. Chinese stocks are in a similar boat, hugely
underperforming their regional and global peers.
The wider mid-year report card in Asia is mixed. Japan's Nikkei
massively outperformed, in large part thanks to the weak yen,
Japanese bond yields have hit multi-year highs, but the specter
of deflation has pushed Chinese bond yields to historic lows.
Most currencies are down against the U.S. dollar although
nowhere near as much as the yen. The Indonesian rupiah is at
multi-year lows, while India's rupee is at a record low but
spared further weakness by official intervention.
A snapshot of M&A activity in the January-June period on
Thursday may be more revealing about investor sentiment across
the continent. LSEG data shows that the value of announced
transactions dropped 25% year-on-year to $317.5 billion, and M&A
fees fell to $1.5 billion.
Both are the lowest in 11 years.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Friday:
- Tokyo inflation (June)
- Japan unemployment (May)
- U.S. presidential debate