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MORNING BID ASIA-Uncertainty runs deep, investors seek clearer signals
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MORNING BID ASIA-Uncertainty runs deep, investors seek clearer signals
Nov 3, 2024 1:13 PM

Oct 29 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Investors in Asia could be forgiven for going into Tuesday's

session with a high degree of trepidation, as markets get pulled

by a plethora of local and global forces in all sorts of

directions.

Rare political instability continues to weigh on Japan's

markets after Sunday's inconclusive general election, while

Chinese markets digest yet another push from the People's Bank

of China to inject liquidity into the financial system.

The global backdrop is looking unnerving too. Optimism

around the U.S. megacap tech earnings this week and oil's 6%

slide on Monday are boosting risk appetite, but the relentless

rise in U.S. bond yields and looming U.S. election warrant

caution.

Something may have to give: Do the Treasury market bears and

equity bulls retreat, or not? And if they do, what will the

catalyst be? It's not clear.

What is clear is that the rise in U.S. bond yields shows no

sign of slowing, much less reversing. Not yet, anyway. Yields

hit new multi-month highs on Monday, with the $139 billion sale

of two- and five-year debt also putting downward pressure on

prices.

The 10-year yield touched 4.30% and is now up 64 basis

points since the Fed cut rates on Sept. 18. According to Jim

Bianco at Bianco Research, that is the biggest rise following

the first cut in a Fed easing cycle since 1989.

Despite that, Wall Street rose on Monday, providing bulls in

Asia with some encouragement.

Tuesday's Asian calendar includes unemployment data from

Japan and Singapore, and minutes of the Bank of Korea's policy

meeting this month, when it cut rates for the first time in over

four years. Thailand's finance minister and central bank

governor will discuss next year's inflation target.

In Japan, swaps market pricing shows 'no change' from the

Bank of Japan on Thursday is a near certainty. Six basis points

of rate hikes are priced in for December's meeting, and only 35

bps in total by the end of next year.

That would be a very gradual tightening cycle. Set against a

more hawkish Fed in a U.S. 'soft' or 'no landing' scenario, the

yen's upside may be limited.

U.S. rates traders continue to pare back Fed expectations -

only 120 bps of easing now priced in by the end of next year,

down 15 bps in the last few days. Little wonder the dollar is on

course for its best month since April 2022.

Officials in China, meanwhile, will be hoping investors warm

to the PBOC's new lending tool, which could inject liquidity

into the market ahead of the expiration of nearly 3 trillion

yuan, or $406 billion, in loans at the end of the year.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Tuesday:

- Japan unemployment (September)

- South Korea central bank minutes

- Thai finance minister and central bank chief speak

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