Aug 12 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
A week is not just a long time in politics.
Seven days ago a huge unwind in the yen carry trade and
selloff in megacap U.S. tech triggered a wave of volatility that
sent global markets reeling and investors running for the safety
of U.S. Treasuries.
As the new trading week gets underway in Asia on Monday,
that seems a long time ago - many assets have recovered much of
these losses, volatility has subsided, and traders have heavily
scaled back their rate cut expectations.
The question now is whether that momentum can be sustained.
Some investors will seize upon lower equity volatility to push
up risky assets again; others will be wary of potential
aftershocks in any corner of the market, especially in
mid-August when liquidity is much thinner than usual.
Monday's Asian calendar is light. Indian consumer price
inflation is the main event, leaving markets at the mercy of
global forces.
If that's the case, Monday should be relatively calm. Wall
Street rose on Friday, meaning the Nasdaq and S&P 500 ended last
week essentially flat. Treasury yields fell on Friday but
registered their biggest weekly rise in months.
Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data suggesting
recession fears are overblown, and a couple of poorly-received
U.S. debt auctions, pushed yields higher. No bad thing, perhaps,
if you think the previous week's plunge was excessive.
Asian markets' rebound last week was pretty impressive.
After the Nikkei registered its second biggest fall on record
and its third largest ever rise in the space of 24 hours, the
index ended the week down only 2.5%.
Other benchmark indices fared even better - the MSCI Asia
ex-Japan and MSCI World index both ended flat, and the MSCI
Emerging Market index rose 0.2%.
In currencies, U.S. futures market data on Friday showed
that hedge funds slashed their net short yen position in the
week to Aug. 6 by 62,000 contracts. That is the biggest
yen-bullish weekly swing since the Fukushima disaster in
February 2011, and third biggest since comparable data started
in 1986.
If this is representative of the broader FX market, the
short yen 'carry trade' has been mostly wiped out. Do traders
begin shorting the yen and putting on carry trades again, or
not?
Indian inflation is the main data point in Asia and comes
after the Reserve Bank of India last week kept its key interest
rate unchanged at 6.50%, dismissing the market turbulence and
focusing on getting inflation down to its 4% medium term target.
The consensus in a Reuters poll is for annual consumer
inflation in July to fall to 3.65% from 5.08% in June. That
would be the first time in five years below the RBI's
medium-term target.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to Asian markets on Monday:
- India interest rate decision
- India industrial production (June)
- Germany wholesale inflation (July)