Jan 22 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Day two of the second Donald Trump administration, and exchange
rates are in the global market crosshairs as investors nervously
try to figure out how to trade the immediate fog shrouding the
U.S. president's trade policy.
That Trump will impose tariffs on imports from many of America's
major trading partners seems almost certain. On what products
and countries, and to what degree, are unknown right now,
leaving the dollar and other currencies vulnerable to choppy and
volatile trading.
The same applies to other asset classes too, although the
immediate impact is being felt more acutely in FX. Implied
volatility across G10 currencies as measured by Deutsche Bank's
'DBCVIX' index remains relatively high, although it did pull
back late on Tuesday.
Investors will be relieved that Trump chose not to hit major
trading partners with tariffs on his first day in office. They
will be hoping his approach to tariffs follows the path SocGen
analysts sketched out last week - "talk tough, aim high, but act
gradually."
But the president's off-the-cuff remarks to reporters late on
Monday that some tariffs could come on Feb. 1 triggered an
immediate reversal in the dollar, and served a timely reminder
of how difficult the market terrain will be for investors to
navigate in the coming weeks and months.
The dollar looks stretched on positioning, sentiment and
valuation metrics - hedge funds last week held the biggest net
long dollar position in nine years; 'long dollar' is one of
investors' most crowded trades, according to Bank of America's
latest fund manager survey; and Citi analysts reckon the
currency is overvalued by 3%.
But that doesn't mean it can't go even higher, which is
likely if Trump follows through with his more extreme
protectionist measures and fiscal policies, Citi analysts warn.
Rising Treasury yields and term premiums have tended to be
dollar positive in recent years, they note.
Meanwhile, the outlook for markets in Asia on Wednesday is
fairly positive following a day of calm on global FX markets,
falling Treasury yields and solid gains on Wall Street. Nikkei
futures are pointing to a rise of around 0.75% for Japanese
stocks at the open in Tokyo.
China's markets will be under scrutiny following their decent
start to the week on the back of Trump's initial 'go slow'
signals on tariffs. The yuan on Tuesday rose the most since
early November, as per the central bank's daily fixing, and on
Monday registered its best day in spot market trading since
August.
The main economic events in Asia on Wednesday are the release of
New Zealand's latest consumer inflation figures and an interest
rate decision and guidance from Malaysia's central bank.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Wednesday:
- New Zealand inflation (December)
- Malaysia interest rate decision
- World Economic Forum in Davos