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MORNING BID ASIA-Whipsawed dollar and fog of uncertainty? Get used to it
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MORNING BID ASIA-Whipsawed dollar and fog of uncertainty? Get used to it
Jan 21, 2025 2:20 PM

Jan 22 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Day two of the second Donald Trump administration, and exchange

rates are in the global market crosshairs as investors nervously

try to figure out how to trade the immediate fog shrouding the

U.S. president's trade policy.

That Trump will impose tariffs on imports from many of America's

major trading partners seems almost certain. On what products

and countries, and to what degree, are unknown right now,

leaving the dollar and other currencies vulnerable to choppy and

volatile trading.

The same applies to other asset classes too, although the

immediate impact is being felt more acutely in FX. Implied

volatility across G10 currencies as measured by Deutsche Bank's

'DBCVIX' index remains relatively high, although it did pull

back late on Tuesday.

Investors will be relieved that Trump chose not to hit major

trading partners with tariffs on his first day in office. They

will be hoping his approach to tariffs follows the path SocGen

analysts sketched out last week - "talk tough, aim high, but act

gradually."

But the president's off-the-cuff remarks to reporters late on

Monday that some tariffs could come on Feb. 1 triggered an

immediate reversal in the dollar, and served a timely reminder

of how difficult the market terrain will be for investors to

navigate in the coming weeks and months.

The dollar looks stretched on positioning, sentiment and

valuation metrics - hedge funds last week held the biggest net

long dollar position in nine years; 'long dollar' is one of

investors' most crowded trades, according to Bank of America's

latest fund manager survey; and Citi analysts reckon the

currency is overvalued by 3%.

But that doesn't mean it can't go even higher, which is

likely if Trump follows through with his more extreme

protectionist measures and fiscal policies, Citi analysts warn.

Rising Treasury yields and term premiums have tended to be

dollar positive in recent years, they note.

Meanwhile, the outlook for markets in Asia on Wednesday is

fairly positive following a day of calm on global FX markets,

falling Treasury yields and solid gains on Wall Street. Nikkei

futures are pointing to a rise of around 0.75% for Japanese

stocks at the open in Tokyo.

China's markets will be under scrutiny following their decent

start to the week on the back of Trump's initial 'go slow'

signals on tariffs. The yuan on Tuesday rose the most since

early November, as per the central bank's daily fixing, and on

Monday registered its best day in spot market trading since

August.

The main economic events in Asia on Wednesday are the release of

New Zealand's latest consumer inflation figures and an interest

rate decision and guidance from Malaysia's central bank.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Wednesday:

- New Zealand inflation (December)

- Malaysia interest rate decision

- World Economic Forum in Davos

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