April 12 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Monetary policy decisions in South Korea and Singapore, and
Chinese trade and Indian inflation data top Asia's calendar on
Friday, as investors look to shake off the U.S. inflation-fueled
volatility from the previous day and end the week on a high.
Currency markets remain on high alert for yen-supporting
intervention from Japan, with the dollar holding above 153.00
yen at a 34-year high. Even if Tokyo doesn't act, traders will
be wary of staying 'long' dollar/yen at these historic levels
going into the weekend.
The yen's deep-rooted weakness - it is also at a 31-year low
against the Chinese yuan - and the competitive advantage it
seemingly offers Japan in world trade is bound to be causing
unease across Asia.
It opens the possibility of an eventual 'beggar thy
neighbor' wave of currency devaluations across the continent.
This may never be official policy, but weaker exchange rates may
be tacitly welcomed or encouraged in certain capitals.
Of course, weak exchange rates can complicate central banks'
fight against inflation. In China higher inflation would be
welcome, but a weak and falling currency instead raises the
potential for renewed capital flight out of Chinese assets.
And China's currency is weak against the dollar. On Thursday
it slipped to a five-month low despite the central bank's
efforts to steer it higher, and the offshore yuan had its
steepest fall in three weeks.
On the equity front, meanwhile, Asian stocks can clock their
best week in five if markets take heart from Wall Street's
remarkable rebound on Thursday, in particular the Nasdaq's 1.7%
jump.
A rise of 1% on the day will seal the MSCI Asia ex-Japan
index's best week this year and lift it to a new 14-month high.
The resilience of Asian stocks is all the more notable given
the weakness in China. The blue chip CSI 300 index has fallen
six days in a row, and another decline on Friday will mark the
index's worst run since the pandemic onset in March 2020.
A battered property sector, rising debt levels, and
deflation remain heavy drags on economic activity, and the
latest snapshot of consumer and producer prices will have done
little to improve the outlook.
Beijing releases trade figures for March on Friday, with
economists expecting exports to have contracted, cooling some of
the optimism from earlier in the year.
South Korea's central bank, meanwhile, is expected to keep
its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50% for a 10th straight
meeting on Friday, before embarking on a shallow cutting cycle
next quarter, according to a Reuters poll.
And figures from India are expected to show inflation is
expected to have eased to a five-month low of 4.91% in March,
still well above the Reserve Bank of India's 4% medium-term
target.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Friday:
- South Korea interest rate decision
- India consumer price inflation (March)
- China trade (March)
(By Jamie McGeever;)