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MORNING BID ASIA-Widening FX worry, South Korea sets rates
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MORNING BID ASIA-Widening FX worry, South Korea sets rates
Apr 11, 2024 3:19 PM

April 12 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Monetary policy decisions in South Korea and Singapore, and

Chinese trade and Indian inflation data top Asia's calendar on

Friday, as investors look to shake off the U.S. inflation-fueled

volatility from the previous day and end the week on a high.

Currency markets remain on high alert for yen-supporting

intervention from Japan, with the dollar holding above 153.00

yen at a 34-year high. Even if Tokyo doesn't act, traders will

be wary of staying 'long' dollar/yen at these historic levels

going into the weekend.

The yen's deep-rooted weakness - it is also at a 31-year low

against the Chinese yuan - and the competitive advantage it

seemingly offers Japan in world trade is bound to be causing

unease across Asia.

It opens the possibility of an eventual 'beggar thy

neighbor' wave of currency devaluations across the continent.

This may never be official policy, but weaker exchange rates may

be tacitly welcomed or encouraged in certain capitals.

Of course, weak exchange rates can complicate central banks'

fight against inflation. In China higher inflation would be

welcome, but a weak and falling currency instead raises the

potential for renewed capital flight out of Chinese assets.

And China's currency is weak against the dollar. On Thursday

it slipped to a five-month low despite the central bank's

efforts to steer it higher, and the offshore yuan had its

steepest fall in three weeks.

On the equity front, meanwhile, Asian stocks can clock their

best week in five if markets take heart from Wall Street's

remarkable rebound on Thursday, in particular the Nasdaq's 1.7%

jump.

A rise of 1% on the day will seal the MSCI Asia ex-Japan

index's best week this year and lift it to a new 14-month high.

The resilience of Asian stocks is all the more notable given

the weakness in China. The blue chip CSI 300 index has fallen

six days in a row, and another decline on Friday will mark the

index's worst run since the pandemic onset in March 2020.

A battered property sector, rising debt levels, and

deflation remain heavy drags on economic activity, and the

latest snapshot of consumer and producer prices will have done

little to improve the outlook.

Beijing releases trade figures for March on Friday, with

economists expecting exports to have contracted, cooling some of

the optimism from earlier in the year.

South Korea's central bank, meanwhile, is expected to keep

its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50% for a 10th straight

meeting on Friday, before embarking on a shallow cutting cycle

next quarter, according to a Reuters poll.

And figures from India are expected to show inflation is

expected to have eased to a five-month low of 4.91% in March,

still well above the Reserve Bank of India's 4% medium-term

target.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Friday:

- South Korea interest rate decision

- India consumer price inflation (March)

- China trade (March)

(By Jamie McGeever;)

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