March 20 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
The central bank policy party rolls on into Wednesday with China
and Indonesia under the spotlight in Asia ahead of the main
event in Washington later in the day, as investors continue to
digest the Bank of Japan's historic rate hike the day before.
The yen fell to a four-month low on Tuesday, hurtling towards
151.00 per dollar as investors took the BOJ's messaging to mean
any further tightening will be gradual.
If so, rate and yield spreads will continue to support major
currencies like the dollar at the expense of the yen. The "carry
trade" dynamic could be underscored even more on Wednesday by
the Federal Reserve's policy statement, updated economic
projections and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference.
The yen's slide on Tuesday bucked the trend among major
global currencies and pushed it back within sight of the recent
multi-decade lows around 152.00 per dollar.
The weak yen goes hand in glove with stronger Japanese
stocks - the Nikkei 225 is back above 40,000 and within touching
distance of its record high 40,472 points from earlier this
month. A new high on Wednesday?
Markets across the continent could open Wednesday in buoyant
mood and shrug off the previous day's weakness, thanks to
another rise on Wall Street and fall in U.S. bond yields.
Any upside could be limited, however, by investors'
reluctance to take on too much exposure ahead of the Fed. And
although China's economic surprises index is at a 10-month high,
worries persist over the country's property crisis.
This helps explain why 30-year Chinese government bond yields
are down 40 basis points this year, recently hitting a record
low of below 2.4% and coming within a whisker of dropping below
10-year yields, which also have hit 22-year troughs.
Analysts reckon the People's Bank of China will leave its
one- and five-year loan prime rates unchanged, after it left key
bank lending rates on holds earlier this month.
Despite the deflationary pressures still stalking the
economy, monetary policy has "pretty much reached the limits of
what it can do ... and so any further easing is likely to be
modest," according to Win Thin at BBH.
Bank Indonesia, meanwhile, is also expected to hold rates
for a fifth month on Wednesday but cut in the second quarter of
the year, according to a slim majority of economists in a
Reuters poll.
With inflation within the target range of 1.5% to 3.5% since
July and the economy showing signs of a slowdown, all 31
economists in the March 8-15 poll agreed the central bank's next
move would be a cut. The only issue is when.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Wednesday:
- China LPR decision
- Indonesia monetary policy decision
- U.S. Fed policy decision