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MORNING BID ASIA-Yen traders eye BOJ minutes, China eyes rebound
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MORNING BID ASIA-Yen traders eye BOJ minutes, China eyes rebound
Jun 23, 2024 3:17 PM

June 24 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

The final trading week of the first half of the year gets

underway on Monday, with Asia's scorecard looking reasonably

positive from an equity perspective, mixed through a currency

and bond lens, and more bleak from a Chinese market angle.

Chinese stocks will be looking to stop the rot and halt the

recent decline that has extended their underperformance against

regional and global peers this year.

Investors in Japanese assets, meanwhile, are on high FX

intervention alert after the yen fell on Friday for a seventh

straight day towards 160.00 per dollar, the level that triggered

the first of Tokyo's yen-buying forays into the market nearly

two months ago.

With the Bank of Japan's next policy meeting not until July

30-31, it may require verbal or direct intervention again to

halt the yen's slide. The BOJ's summary of opinions from its

June 13-14 policy meeting, to be released on Monday, will be

closely watched.

The regional calendar on Monday also includes the latest

trade figures from New Zealand, inflation from Singapore, and

unemployment and industrial production from Taiwan.

Asian stocks go into the last week of June in decent shape,

supported by subdued volatility and falling inflation globally,

lower U.S. bond yields, and buoyant equities worldwide.

With the end of the first half in sight, however, some

investors will want to lock in profits and square positions. The

slide in Nvidia shares last week - their first weekly decline in

nine - could be a sign of how this week will play out.

Japanese stocks are up around 15% year to date, and the MSCI

Asia ex-Japan, India's Sensex and South Korea's Kospi are all up

around 7%.

The outlier is China.

The Shanghai Composite is barely in positive territory for

the year, has lost 5% in the last month, and is on its worst

weekly losing streak in six years.

The news flow isn't particularly encouraging - trade

tensions between China and the West are increasing by the day it

seems, and on Friday, Washington issued draft rules for banning

or requiring notification of certain investments in artificial

intelligence and other technology sectors in China.

Capital flows aren't particularly supportive either. Foreign

direct investment into China in the January-May period fell 28%

to $49.7 billion from the same period last year, and some $4.5

billion has left the mainland this month via the Northbound leg

of the Stock Connect Scheme, snapping four months of net

inflows.

But Barclays analysts say the selloff is overdone, and the

bar is low for market-friendly positive surprises from next

month's 'plenum' - a key meeting of the Communist Party's

central committee. They recommend positioning for a rebound.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Monday:

- BOJ summary of opinions from June meeting

- Singapore inflation (May)

- Taiwan industrial production (May)

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