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MORNING BID ASIA-Yen wary of holiday calm as Q1 curtain falls
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MORNING BID ASIA-Yen wary of holiday calm as Q1 curtain falls
Mar 28, 2024 3:02 PM

March 29 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Markets in Asia on Friday will be quieter and probably more

range-bound than usual with most of the rest of the world closed

for Good Friday, but there is always the chance of outsized

moves when liquidity is so thin.

Especially if Japanese authorities take advantage of the calm to

intervene in the currency market and pull the yen up from this

week's 34-year low near 152.00 per dollar.

The main event for world markets on Friday is U.S. PCE

inflation data which will land when the Asian day is over, and

most of Europe and U.S. stock and bond markets are closed for

Easter.

The first quarter draws to a close with global sentiment riding

pretty high after revised fourth quarter U.S. growth and

inflation data on Thursday boosted the 'soft landing' or even

'no landing' scenario.

In Asia on Friday, investors face a batch of Japanese

indicators including unemployment, retail sales, industrial

production and Tokyo inflation.

There's potential for decent moves in the yen - thin

liquidity, a raft of top-tier domestic data and the currency

already languishing at its lowest levels in decades.

A double whammy of soft Tokyo inflation and punchy U.S.

inflation could push the dollar back up to 152 yen and test

Japan's resolve.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Thursday waded in to the

debate: "We will monitor currency moves with a high sense of

urgency and respond appropriately without ruling out any options

to deal with excessive currency moves."

Whether Japan wants to trigger a potentially sizeable move

in the exchange rate and spike in volatility on the last day of

Japan's fiscal year remains to be seen. But traders will be on

their guard.

Japanese stocks will be looking to rebound from a 1.5% slump

on Thursday but may struggle if the yen strengthens further.

Chinese stocks, meanwhile, will be looking just to close the

month in the green. They jumped on Thursday after the South

China Morning Post reported that President Xi Jinping has urged

the central bank to buy government bonds as part of a broader

stimulus push.

There may be further signs that China is seeking to engage

with the international community on trade and business that

could boost investor sentiment.

After Xi's meeting this week with top U.S. business leaders,

commerce minister Wang Wentao will travel to Europe soon for

discussions about the European Commission's investigation into

whether China's electric vehicle industry has benefited from

unfair subsidies.

But the property sector black cloud looms large. Several

developers on Thursday reported weaker 2023 earnings and Country

Garden, China's largest private developer, said it will delay

its 2023 results due to "continuous volatility" in what is an

"increasingly complex" sector.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Friday:

- Japan Tokyo inflation (March)

- Japan retail sales, industrial production, unemployment

(February)

- South Korea retail sales, industrial production

(February)

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