financetom
World
financetom
/
World
/
Morning Bid: China clouds global 'Goldilocks' outlook
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Morning Bid: China clouds global 'Goldilocks' outlook
Sep 1, 2024 9:49 PM

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

Investors in Asia kick off the new trading month on the front foot, optimistic about a U.S. 'soft landing' and dovish Fed outlook, which should help boost risk appetite and the appeal of emerging market assets.

The recent slide in the dollar, falling U.S. bond yields and global equity bounce have resulted in a significant loosening of financial conditions that is fueling a virtuous cycle of increasing bullishness.

Data last week showed U.S. growth beating forecasts and inflation cooling, just as the Fed is about to start its easing cycle later this month. Add in a decent Q2 earnings season, and a 'Goldilocks' scenario is clearly emerging.

As ever though, the danger at times like this is complacency - episodes like the Aug. 5 volatility shock are always lurking, and next time the impact may not be so fleeting. And there's also China.

China's 'official' purchasing managers index data on Saturday gave the first insight into how the world's second largest economy performed in August, and it made for sobering reading - factory activity is flagging, deflationary pressures are intensifying, and the need for stimulus is growing.

Manufacturing activity sank to a six-month low, contracting for a fourth straight month as factory gate prices tumbled and owners struggled for orders. Services activity picked up pace, but growth in the sector is barely visible.

In fact, the composite PMI slipped to 50.1, the lowest since December 2022 when China's economy re-opened, signaling almost no growth at all.

China's 'unofficial' manufacturing PMI will be released on Monday. The Caixin PMI index is expected to rise to 50.0 from 49.8, essentially moving to 'no growth' from slight contraction. Manufacturing PMIs from across Asia, including Japan, India, Australia and South Korea, will also be released.

Traders will also be keeping a close eye on the yuan, which is its strongest level against the U.S. dollar in 15 months amid growing corporate demand for the currency and as U.S. rate cuts come into view.

Overall liquidity and market activity will be lighter than usual with U.S. markets closed on Monday for Labor Day, but the backdrop generally remains constructive.

According to Goldman Sachs's ( GS ) indices, emerging market financial conditions are the loosest in over a year, U.S. conditions are the loosest in more than two years, and global conditions the loosest in nearly two-and-a-half years.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 20 basis points in August, the fourth consecutive month it has declined.

The S&P 500 rose for a fourth straight month back to within touching distance of July's record high, the MSCI World index did hit a new high, while the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index rose for a sixth month from the last seven.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to Asian markets on Monday:

- China, Japan & others' manufacturing PMIs (August)

- Indonesia inflation (August)

- Australia company profits (Q2)

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian stocks surge as trade tensions ease, Nikkei hits record
GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian stocks surge as trade tensions ease, Nikkei hits record
Oct 20, 2025
* Nikkei on the cusp of 50,000 as Takaichi trade charges on * Fiscal dove Takaichi set to become Japan's PM * Trump-Xi meeting next week, traders hope for trade resolution By Ankur Banerjee SINGAPORE, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose on Tuesday as the prospect of easing trade tensions between the world's top two economies boosted risk sentiment,...
TRADING DAY-Another wave of 'buy the dip'
TRADING DAY-Another wave of 'buy the dip'
Oct 20, 2025
ORLANDO, Florida, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Wall Street and most global equity benchmarks rose sharply on Monday, as optimism around U.S. earnings and easing global trade tensions offset some of last week's worries over frothy asset prices, private credit markets and U.S. regional banks. More on that below. In my column today, I look at the so-called U.S. 'debasement trade'....
Japan's Nikkei at all-time peak ahead of PM vote
Japan's Nikkei at all-time peak ahead of PM vote
Oct 20, 2025
TOKYO, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei share gauge continued its record run on Tuesday, ahead of a parliamentary vote expected to confirm fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi as the nation's next prime minister. The Nikkei 225 Index climbed 1% to 49,663.45 in early trade, and is poised for a record close, if the current momentum persists. The broader Topix gauge...
Trading Day: Another wave of 'buy the dip'
Trading Day: Another wave of 'buy the dip'
Oct 20, 2025
ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) -Wall Street and most global equity benchmarks rose sharply on Monday, as optimism around U.S. earnings and easing global trade tensions offset some of last week's worries over frothy asset prices, private credit markets and U.S. regional banks. More on that below. In my column today, I look at the so-called U.S. 'debasement trade'. While debt and...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved