June 30 (Reuters) -

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets

It's halftime for 2026 markets as the whistle blows on a turbulent and volatile first six months of the year.

Despite the energy-shocking four-month Iran war and rancorous geopolitics over Venezuela, Greenland and NATO, it's been a boom year for key parts of the AI story, with chip stocks more than doubling.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on the lingering risks around the AI boom - even as bubble fears wane.

And catch the latest episode of the Morning Bid podcast - a mid-year special edition featuring Markets Columnist Jamie McGeever.

Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the ​biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week - and subscribe to Jamie's markets newsletter, Trading Day.

DOUBLED BY HALFTIME

Many individual chip stocks trebled or quadrupled this year on pumped-up AI capex by the so-called hyperscalers. The second quarter was the best on record for the U.S. SOX chip index, but June was the worst month in a dour year so far for the Magnificent Seven - most of whom are doing all the spending.

Oil prices have returned to pre-Iran war levels, meantime, with all eyes on planned peace talks in Doha on Tuesday after the weekend's military flareups.

But Federal Reserve rate-hike bets are still in the mix for the second half regardless, as recent macro releases show the U.S. economy may be running hot.

More immediately, the quarter ended on an upbeat note for the big chip-stock winners in Asia, with Wall Street's attention now turning to the June jobs report due on Thursday in this holiday-shortened week.

Ahead of that, U.S. May job openings data is on the schedule for Tuesday, as are consumer confidence updates for June.

Another big development on Monday was the narrow U.S. Supreme Court ruling that President Trump cannot fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook until the case against her is heard and proven. If she's found guilty, it's a different matter.

Over in FX markets, Japan's yen continued to weaken to 40-year lows, without intervention from the authorities so far, despite ongoing warnings. Speculative short positions in the yen have risen to their highest in about two years, with investors increasingly nervous about the prospect of official action to prop up the flagging currency.

In corporate news, Comcast ( CMCSA ) ended almost 5% higher on Monday after it announced it was splitting its media and entertainment units from its communications business, spinning out NBCUniversal and Sky into a different company.

Chart of the day

The halftime whistle in 2026 has blown and there's already a clear winner - chips are champs.

The SOX chip index has nearly doubled this year, but even that understates things. Shares of Intel and Marvell Technology more than trebled, Micron Technology quadrupled and Sandisk climbed more than 700%.

Yet the companies doing all the AI spending that's driving the demand for those chips are suffering in the background. The once-Magnificent Seven of U.S. tech megacaps is in the red for the year to the tune of 4%, with Microsoft down a whopping 24% and Meta down almost 15%.

Today's events to watch

-- U.S. May JOLTS job openings (10 a.m. EDT), June consumer confidence (10 a.m. EDT)

-- U.S. corporate earnings: Nike

-- Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack speaks

Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, and you can follow us on LinkedIn and X.

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.