A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from
Stella Qiu
It was already a troubling set-up for stocks, with
valuations stretched, the whiff of an AI bubble, a shut U.S.
government and the ongoing break-up between Washington and
Beijing. Now, add in jitters about U.S. regional banks.
Overnight, Zions sank 13% after disclosing it would
take a $50 million loss in the third quarter on two loans from
its California division. Western Alliance's stock
slumped 11% after it initiated a lawsuit alleging fraud by
Cantor Group V, LLC.
The banks' selloff comes more than two years after Silicon
Valley Bank's 2023 failure, when high interest rates drove paper
losses on its bonds, sparking a fatal deposit run that felled
Signature Bank days later.
Worries of a repeat drove shares in the red and had markets
baying for more U.S. rate cuts. MSCI's broadest index of
Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.9% on
Friday and Japan's Nikkei slid 1.1% as its banking index
tumbled.
Wall Street futures fell 0.4% ahead of more earnings from
U.S. regional banks later in the day. European stock futures
lost 0.8%, while FTSE futures dropped 1%.
The flight to safety saw gold hit a record of
$4,378.69 per ounce and was poised to finish the week 8.9%
higher - the biggest weekly rise since September 2008 when the
collapse of Lehman Brothers fuelled the global financial crisis.
How is that not ominous?
Treasuries also found their safe-haven mojo back, rallying
for a third straight week. Two-year Treasury yields hit a fresh
three-year trough of 3.3890% as investors bet the Federal
Reserve will have to cut rates twice by year end, with some
chance of an outsized 50 bps move.
While financial stability risks seem contained for now,
Jamie Dimon has said "When you see one cockroach, there are
probably more, and so everyone should be forewarned."
Investors assume the Fed will ride to the rescue, because of
course it will. But cutting rates when inflation is at 3% and
the full impact of tariffs on prices is only starting to be felt
could be just a taster of what to expect when Trump gets to
appoint his very own Fed chair.
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
- Little data released as US government is shut
- Fed official Alberto G. Musalem speaks, as well as Bank of
Japan's Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida
- US earnings include American Express, State Street and
more regional banks
(Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)