June 22 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and

global markets from Wayne Cole.

It's been a choppy session in Asia as off-again, on-again peace

talks between the U.S. and Iran seemed to make progress.

The whole process looked in doubt after President Trump

threatened fresh attacks on Iran, and Tehran said it had closed

the Strait of Hormuz again.

Then Iranian negotiators said progress had actually been made in

the first session of talks, while officials for Oman and

Pakistan stated a committee was being formed to run the

discussions with an eye to reaching a deal in 60 days.

The status of the strait was not entirely clear, with shipping

having slowed after U.S. Central Command said 55 vessels passed

on Saturday, while tracking showed 32 the day before. Iran also

suggested a mechanism would be set up to control the vital

waterway, presumably including some sort of fee on shipping.

The apparent progress saw Brent reverse course and slip 2.5%

to under $79.00 a barrel, while Asian share markets swung

higher. Wall Street futures and Treasuries pared early losses,

though the mounting risk of a Federal Reserve rate hike loomed

large.

Futures imply around a 75% chance of a rate rise as

early as September and 41 basis points of tightening by

year-end. Yields on 2-year Treasuries duly touched

the highest since early 2025 at 4.2276%.

Trump also caused a stir in the UK by posting that Prime

Minister Keir Starmer was set to resign, after multiplemedia

reports that Starmer would announce his exit plans to allow a

leadership contest by rival Andy Burnham, who won an election

for a seat in parliament decisively last week.

If true, Burnham is considered certain to take the top job

and likely to shake up the cabinet including replacing finance

minister Rachel Reeves. The gilt market is unsure how committed

Burnham is to fiscal strictness and worried he could end up

spending and borrowing more.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

- Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller gives

welcome remarks

- ECB President Christine Lagarde and Economy Commissioner

Valdis Dombrovskis speak

- EU consumer confidence for June

- Canadian inflation for May