A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae
Wee
The euphoria from this week's mix of market tailwinds
appears to have run its course, with investors left searching
for the next catalyst. That could come later in the day from
U.S. retail sales and Walmart's ( WMT ) earnings.
Asian stocks drifted and futures pointed to a mixed opening
in Europe on Thursday, as investors sobered up to the fact that
there remains much uncertainty over the outlook for the global
economy and U.S. President Donald Trump's chaotic trade
policies.
Key for markets will be results from Walmart ( WMT ), a
bellwether for the U.S. retail industry, for an indication on
whether the Arkansas behemoth is truly best placed to navigate
the uncertainty from Trump's tariffs.
Walmart ( WMT ) is among a handful of large companies that have not
either pulled or slashed their forecasts. The company last month
reaffirmed its annual forecast, saying "nothing in the current
environment changes its strategy".
Should that change, investors will no doubt be alarmed.
The results come alongside U.S. retail sales data for the
month of April, where expectations are for a flat reading on a
monthly basis.
Together, the releases will offer clues on the health of the
U.S. consumer, and upbeat numbers could narrow the chances of a
recession in the world's largest economy, which would in turn be
a boon for stocks.
Also on the market's radar is a speech from Federal Reserve
Chair Jerome Powell, where the focus will be on any hints he may
give regarding the outlook for U.S. monetary policy.
So far, the hard data has given Fed policymakers little to
go on as they try to assess how Trump's sweeping tariffs and
ongoing trade negotiations will affect prices and the economy.
And it is likely Powell will reiterate his patient approach on
rates.
Ahead of the U.S. releases, preliminary first-quarter growth
figures for the UK and euro zone are also due, though investors
are likely to look past those numbers given they pre-date
Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs.
In currency markets, the dollar remained volatile against
the Korean won, sliding for a second straight day on news
that South Korea's deputy finance minister discussed forex with
a U.S. Treasury official earlier this month.
The moves in the won were reminiscent of an unprecedented
surge in the Taiwan dollar just a few days ago, again stoking
speculation that a weaker dollar could be part of Trump's trade
deal with other countries.
Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:
- UK preliminary GDP (Q1)
- Euro zone flash GDP (Q1)
- U.S. retail sales (April)
- Walmart ( WMT ) earnings
- Fed Chair Powell speaks
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(Editing by Jacqueline Wong)