A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom

Westbrook

No doubt there are some sore heads around the City today

after Ollie Watkins' stoppage-time strike sent England into

Sunday's European Championship final against Spain.

But the job of winning England's first major trophy on

foreign soil is not done and nor, in markets, is the campaign

against inflation where much depends on the U.S. number due

later in the day.

Stock markets have marched to record highs anyway, led by

big tech gains in anticipation of rate cuts in the autumn.

On an annual basis U.S. June headline CPI is expected to

slow to 3.1%, while core CPI is seen steady month-on-month at

0.2%, according to economists polled by Reuters.

As it stands, Fed funds futures are showing a 73% chance

that the central bank eases at its September meeting, according

to CME FedWatch. Inflation meeting economists' forecasts will

likely cement those expectations.

But rate-cut bets have swung wildly this year, and a

surprise spike could further jolt projections, rattle asset

prices and put the yen right back on the ropes.

The yen was stuck on the weak side of 161 per

dollar in Asia on Thursday and markets in Tokyo and Taipei

notched record highs, as they did in New York on Wednesday.

The Nasdaq is up more than 5% for the month already.

The Bank of Korea held rates, as expected, but dropped a

warning about inflation risks from its statement in an echo of a

similar shift in language a day earlier in New Zealand.

Sterling, meanwhile, made a four-month high as Bank

of England chief economist Huw Pill did not tee up the August

rate cut that some had expected.

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

Economics: Final German CPI, UK monthly GDP, U.S. CPI

Earnings: Delta Airlines, PepsiCo

Speeches: Fed's Musalem and Bostic

(Editing by Jacqueline Wong)