A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from

Ankur Banerjee

The contrasting messaging from Iran and the U.S. around a

possible ceasefire in the Gulf has left investors reluctant to

place major bets as cautious optimism around an end to the

conflict meets the sobering reality of elevated energy prices.

The uncertainty has fuelled choppy trading with stocks swinging

between gains and losses during Asian hours. European futures

indicate a lower open but much will depend on the fast-evolving

developments in the Middle East.

So here's where we are: Iran said it was reviewing a U.S.

proposal for ceasefire but had ​no intention of holding talks to

wind down the conflict. U.S. President ​Donald Trump, meanwhile,

said Iran was desperate to make a deal to end nearly four weeks

of fighting.

With the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for a fifth of the world's

oil and liquefied natural gas, effectively closed, countries

across the world are grappling with fuel shortages, supply

shocks and rising costs.

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung asked the public on

Thursday to conserve electric power, while the Philippines'

energy market regulator said it had suspended the country's

wholesale electricity spot market across all its three grids.

While oil prices above $100 per barrel will cast a shadow across

the global economy, some countries are more exposed and less

able to deal with rising prices.

All that has meant investors are doing what they have done all

this month. Sell stocks and bonds. The only haven? The dollar.

Asian stocks have felt the brunt of the selling with MSCI's

broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan

set to fall 8.7% over the month, its biggest

monthly drop since October 2022.

Foreign investors have sold $50 billion worth of regional stocks

since the U.S. and Israel began their strikes on Iran on

February 28, with Tehran later launching its own attacks and a

new front opening in Lebanon.

The pan-European STOXX 600 remains under pressure as

Europe's dependence on oil imports has weighed on equities since

the start of the war. The broad index is down more than 7% while

the S&P 500 is down just over 4% in March.

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

- Germany: GfK Consumer Sentiment for April

- France: Consumer Confidence for March

- Earnings: Delivery Hero and Porsche