A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from
Gregor Stuart Hunter
Sure enough, you wait ages for a central bank meeting, and then
they come along all at once.
Okay, yes, fine, we had the ECB last week. But this week
sees the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of
Japan and a host of other central banks from Toronto to Taipei
deciding on interest rates.
The Fed holds its latest policy meeting with a historic
challenge to its leadership pending in the courts and a rushed
effort underway to confirm President Donald Trump's nominee to
fill an open seat on its Board of Governors, which should
provide some resolution to questions over the central bank's
independence that have bubbled throughout the summer.
Markets are fully pricing in a 25-basis-point-cut on
Wednesday, but have reined in expectations of a jumbo 50 bps
reduction to just 3.8%, according to the CME Group's FedWatch
tool.
They started the week gently enough, with stocks in Asia
floating 0.1% higher with Japanese markets
closed for a holiday, and South Korea's Kospi index
hitting a new record as the government scrapped plans to hike
taxes on capital gains.
In early European trades, the pan-region futures
were up 0.11%, German DAX futures were flat, and FTSE
futures slipped 0.1%. OAT futures extended
declines for a second day after Fitch downgraded France's credit
rating on Friday.
The S&P 500 e-minis U.S. stock futures were up 0.1%
ahead of Friday's Triple Witching event, which sees the expiry
of single-stock options, as well as equity index futures and
options.
The U.S. and Britain are preparing to announce agreements on
technology and civil nuclear energy during U.S. President Donald
Trump's unprecedented second state visit this week, as the UK
hopes to finalise steel tariffs under a much-vaunted trade deal.
In other trade news, U.S. and Chinese officials concluded a
first day of talks in Madrid on Sunday on their strained trade
ties, and will resume them later on Monday.
Trump said he was still negotiating on the divestiture deadline
for Chinese short-video app TikTok, with a source telling
Reuters the U.S. is expected to again extend a September 17
deadline for China's ByteDance to divest its U.S. assets.
Data on Monday showed the Chinese economy lost some momentum
in August, with a slew of activity indicators coming below
forecasts. Its industrial output expanded at 5.2%, slowing from
the 5.7% pace of the previous month, while retail sales rose
only 3.4% from a year ago.
Elsewhere in China, there were worrying signs that the
red-hot Labubu bubble may be starting to burst. Plushie-maker
Pop Mart ( POPMF ) shares sank as much as 9% in Hong Kong after
J.P. Morgan downgraded the shares to neutral, saying the stock
is priced for perfection, and vulnerable to setbacks.
Analysts from the Wall Street bank expressed disappointment
over the lack of visibility for the next iteration of the brand,
such as the release timeline for new animations or interactive
toys. Give the people what they want, Pop Mart ( POPMF )!
Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:
Economic data:
Euro zone trade balance for July
Euro zone reserve assets for August
Debt auctions:
France: 4-month, 5-month, 6-month and 1-year government debt
auctions
Germany: 1-year government debt auction
(Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)