A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from
Kevin Buckland
The relief rally in global stocks was still in place on
Wednesday in Asia, but with dwindling conviction.
It's not that there was any news - or late social media
posts from POTUS himself - to change the market's outlook.
It's more that the rally has been built on optimism for a
softer, more flexible stance from President Donald Trump, but
the uncertainty remains - the tariff deadline is still April 2,
and there's still no clarity on what will or won't happen that
day.
As everyone knows, there's nothing markets hate more than
uncertainty.
MSCI's index of world equities started the
week with a 1.2% rally, narrowing to a 0.3% rise on Tuesday, and
just barely staying above water very early in the latest
session.
Japan's Nikkei, for example, began brightly with
gains of 1%, but those were halved by midday. Likewise, Hong
Kong's Hang Seng rose more than 1% early on, but was only
up 0.3% just after noon.
U.S. equity futures flipped from small gains to
small losses.
For now, pan-European STOXX 50 futures are
signalling a 0.1% rise.
To recap, Trump suggested on Monday that not all the levies
he's threatened will be implemented on April 2, and "a lot of
countries" could get some exemptions, without giving further
details.
At the same time, investors got a reminder of how erratic
the trade situation can be, with the announcement of 25% tariffs
on buyers of Venezuelan oil and gas.
And considering Trump has dubbed next Wednesday "Liberation
Day", you would think it would bring at least some fireworks.
Certainly for markets, the day could be a crucial one,
either signalling a more flexible approach to tariffs going
forward, or confirming a hard line, and how difficult it is to
read Trump's intentions.
On the European data calendar, UK CPI will be closely
watched, with the outlook for Bank of England interest rate cuts
looking increasingly cloudy under Trump's trade war.
British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves also delivers a
fiscal update to parliament later today, and is set to announce
an additional 2.2 billion pounds ($2.84 billion) for defence
spending.
France releases consumer confidence and jobs figures, and
Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau will be
quizzed about the economy by the lower house's finance
commission.
In the U.S., Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and St.
Louis Fed boss Alberto Musalem both have public speaking
engagements.
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
-UK CPI (February)
-France consumer confidence (March), employment figures
(February)
-UK fiscal update
-Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari, St. Louis Fed's Musalem speak
at separate venues
($1 = 0.7733 pounds)
(Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)