A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom

Westbrook

At last Election Day is here, ending an acrimonious campaign

roiled by assassination attempts on Donald Trump and the swap of

Kamala Harris for Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate.

Outwardly, markets gave the appearance of steadiness in the

final stretch and dealing desks reported that investors have

drawn down risk and settled in to wait and see.

In the eerie calm, Australia's central bank left rates on

hold, as expected, and Knight's Choice won the Melbourne Cup.

Oil has been the main market mover in recent days, gaining

nearly 3% on Monday after OPEC+ said it would delay a planned

output hike for a second time.

U.S. polling points to an incredibly close contest and

gambling markets have tightened odds in recent days, prompting a

bit of a trim for wagers in financial markets on a Trump victory

or a Republican sweep of Congress and the White House.

Strategists see the dollar rising if Trump wins and falling

if he doesn't, except against bitcoin, which is expected to go

up on a Trump win since he's seen as a softer touch on crypto

regulation.

Beneath the surface, options implied volatility for the

offshore yuan against the dollar was at record highs,

illustrating the tension and nerves about what another

protectionist shift from the U.S. would mean for world trade.

When results roll in, the focus will be on the battleground

states of Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan,

Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada. Polls close in Georgia at

midnight GMT.

A winner may not be known for days and Trump has signalled

that he will attempt to fight any defeat, as he did in 2020.

Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:

- U.S. election