Sept 23 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European

and global markets from Wayne Cole.

A quieter session in Asia with Tokyo on holiday, but South

Korea and Taiwan still managed to notch fresh all-time highs

amid the love affair with all things AI.

The latest tryst being Nvidia's intent to invest up

to $100 billion in OpenAI with the first data centre gear to be

delivered in the second half of 2026.

Analysts' opinion seems rather mixed on this with bulls

seeing it as OpenAI acknowledging there is no alternative to

Nvidia GPUs, but others wondering why Nvidia is funding a

customer to buy its equipment.

There's a lot of interest in whether the flash PMIs for

September out today will continue to show resilience in the face

of U.S. tariffs. The Australian numbers were disappointing, but

don't have a good correlation with growth there.

The EU are seen holding above 50.0, albeit not by much,

while the U.S. versions are seen pulling back a little but still

in positive territory.

The main event later will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell who

gets to speak on the economic outlook and takes questions on

policy - that's at 1235 EDT/1635 GMT.

Markets remain doggedly dovish despite mixed messaging from

the Fed itself. Speaking on Monday, new Fed Governor Stephen

Miran, hand picked by President Trump, argued for big cuts, but

three of his colleagues sounded cautious on inflation.

Futures imply around a 90% chance of a further quarter-point

rate cut in October, and a 75% probability of an easing in

December as well.

As an added wrinkle, the clock is also ticking to a possible

U.S. government shutdown on September 30, with President Trump

due to meet top Democratic leaders on Thursday.

Investors have assumed some sort of an extension would get

hashed out, but the deadlock in the Senate seems real this time.

Which raises the risk of a shutdown that would be especially

badly timed for markets and the Fed.

As analysts at Nomura noted, when the government shuts so do

its data releases. If the standoff was protracted, reports on

payrolls, CPI, retail sales etc might go missing in action for

the Fed's October 29 and December 10 meetings, leaving them

flying blind on policy.

Finally, Disney's decision to reinstate Jimmy Kimmel is an

example of the power of consumer boycotts in an online world.

Even a glance at social media sites will show how many

people were cancelling their subscriptions, holidays, time

shares, even their Disney weddings. Another headache for company

boards.

Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:

- Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook,

appearances by Fed Vice Chair Bowman speaks and Fed Bank of

Atlanta President Bostic

- Riksbank monetary policy decision, media conference

- Appearances by ECB Board Member Cipollone, Bank of England

Chief Economist Pill, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem

- Sept PMIs from Asia, Europe and US. US Treasury auctions

$69bn of 2yr Notes