A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from
Kevin Buckland
Europe wakes up to new U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico and
China, bringing into starker relief Donald Trump's threat of
levies for the EU next.
Trump seems to have shifted to a harder line, saying his
neighbours to the north and south had "no room left" for
negotiations that would further delay 25% levies, following an
earlier one-month stay of execution.
China got slapped with an additional 10% tariff, doubling
blanket duties imposed just a month ago. The measures took
effect from 0501 GMT.
The response in markets has been swift and decisive: sell
stocks and buy bonds.
After Wall Street took a dive on Monday, equities have sold
off around Asia and European stock futures are pointing some 1%
lower.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields in Tokyo trading hours are
plumbing their lowest since October.
Crude oil has slumped to three-month lows, and an additional
drop of 30 cents or so in the price of Brent would extend that
milestone by another two months.
It's not just that Trump's trade policies will significantly
drag on global growth, but that they will be a self-inflicted
wound at a time when the U.S. economy is looking more
vulnerable.
Bets for more Federal Reserve easing keep going up.
Traders now price in three quarter-point rate cuts this
year, from two just days ago, and leaning towards only one a
month earlier.
That's keeping the dollar down, in contrast with the trend
previously - when Trump's protectionist policies strengthened
the currency.
Elsewhere, the euro and sterling are holding firm against
the greenback amid pan-European efforts at a Ukraine peace deal,
even as Washington seems to be moving closer to Moscow.
The safe-haven yen is gaining, coming within a whisker of
setting a five-month peak earlier on Tuesday.
Japan is the latest to emerge as a potential tariff target,
with Trump saying on Monday that he lambasted unspecified
Japanese "leaders" by phone for "killing their currency."
Sowing some confusion, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru
Ishiba said on Tuesday he hasn't spoken to Trump on FX policy.
Trump's tariff threats are turning into reality at an
increasing pace, and it was only last week that he said 25%
levies were on their way for Europe-made "cars and all other
things." April 2 is scheduled to bring a round of so-called
"reciprocal" tariffs from Washington, on top of those already
put in place.
These could all still turn out to be largely a negotiating
tactic rather than the new reality for global trade, and some
investors and analysts certainly ascribe to that view.
For now though, the market would rather sell first and wait
for clarity later.
Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:
- Euro zone unemployment rate (Jan)
- New York Fed President John Williams speaks at Bloomberg
Invest event
(Editing by Jacqueline Wong)