A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from
Ankur Banerjee
Today is the deadline for U.S. trading partners to submit
their "best offer" to avoid punishing import tax rates, the same
day that U.S. duties on imported steel and aluminium kick in,
and investors are more jittery than usual.
So far, only Britain has struck a preliminary trade
agreement with the U.S. during Trump's 90-day pause on a wider
array of tariffs. That pause is set to expire in about five
weeks and investors have been worried about the lack of progress
in hashing out deals.
Adding to the angst, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary
Yoshimasa Hayashi said Tokyo has not received a letter from
Washington asking for its best proposals on trade talks.
The on-again-off-again tariff pronouncements from Trump this
year have investors fleeing U.S. assets and looking for safe
havens and alternatives, including gold. They expect trade
uncertainties will take a heavy toll on the global economy.
The main question in financial markets has been where the
money that usually flowed into U.S. assets will end up going.
For years, money managers embraced the fatalistic presumption
that "there-is-no-alternative" (TINA ... yes, markets love
acronyms) but perhaps there are options now.
As Manishi Raychaudhuri, the founder and CEO of Emmer
Capital Partners Ltd, puts it: While Europe may be the obvious
destination, relative value metrics may favour emerging Asia.
The data so far does not give a complete picture. But what
it does show is investors are lowering their exposure to U.S.
assets, and only time will tell where they end up.
Asian markets rose on Wednesday, boosted by tech stocks as
traders hope a deal could still be possible if and when U.S.
President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping talk this
week.
The spotlight in Asia was also on South Korean assets.
Seoul's benchmark share index surged to 10-month top and
the currency firmed as liberal presidential candidate
Lee Jae-myung's election victory raised expectations for swift
economic stimulus and market reforms.
European futures point to a slightly higher open ahead of a
series of manufacturing data from the region and as the European
Central Bank starts its policy meeting.
The ECB is all but certain to cut rates on Thursday and stay
on its easing cycle as muted wage growth, a strong euro and
lukewarm economic growth all point to easing inflation. Data on
Tuesday showed euro zone inflation in May eased below the ECB
target of 2%.
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
Economic events: May PMI data for UK, euro zone, Germany and
France
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