A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from

Wayne Cole.

So, now we have a Middle East war, an Iran with long-range

ballistic missiles, and a clock ticking down to a scary deadline

- how very reality TV. No doubt some news channel will soon have

a red timer ominously counting the seconds in the corner of

their screen.

Late Saturday, President Trump took to social media to

announce Iran had 48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz, or the

U.S. would "obliterate" Iran's power plants. Trump set a Monday

deadline of around 7:45 p.m. EDT (2345 GMT), thus ruining

Tuesday morning for Asia.

Apparently, the first target would be the largest, which

happens to be a nuclear plant. That would usually be prohibited

under international law and potentially a major environmental

disaster.

Iran responded by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz

"completely" and to target energy and water infrastructure in

neighbouring countries. Strikes on desalination plants would be

particularly devastating.

Brent swung higher, then lower and is now up 0.5% in very

choppy trade. That could be because the U.S. has allowed the

sale of more Iranian and Russian oil already on tankers, meeting

immediate demand.

However, the growing risk of longer-term shortages has

lifted oil futures down the curve. September Brent, for

instance, is up $1 at $92.90 suggesting high prices are here to

stay. The story is similar for LNG, where reports suggest that

there are seven tankers at sea with cargoes, but once those are

delivered there will be no new supply from Qatar.

There are already global shortages of jet fuel, bunker fuel

for ships and fertiliser, promising to make travelling, shopping

and eating all more expensive.

International Energy Agency boss Fatih Birol is in Australia

right now, warning the crisis is "very severe" and worse than

the two oil shocks of the 1970s put together.

The inflationary pulse is hammering bonds, with 10-year

Treasury yields touching eight-month highs of 4.4150%, in turn

adding to borrowing costs for developed nations already

struggling with budget deficits and debt.

Higher yields are also stretching equity valuations, while

rising petrol and diesel prices will act as a brake on consumer

demand and corporate profits. Investors have also aggressively

repriced for central bank tightening, drastically so in some

cases. A Fed rate cut is gone for this year, while the ECB is

seen hiking 75 basis points and the BoE 85 basis points.

This has not gone down well in equity land, where the Nikkei

has shed more than 3% and South Korea almost 6%. European stock

futures are off 1.1% to 1.3%, with S&P 500 futures down 0.4% or

so.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

- Appearances by ECB board member Piero Cipollone, ECB chief

economist Philip Lane

- EU March consumer confidence

- US January construction spending

(Editing by Sonali Paul)