A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae
Wee
Markets in Europe on Thursday will be focused on a raft of
preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings,
particularly from the euro zone, where growth prospects have
become a source of concern among investors and policymakers.
Business activity in the bloc is expected to have remained
in contractionary territory this month, keeping pressure on the
European Central Bank (ECB) to make its next rate cut sooner
rather than later.
ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday the
central bank would need to be cautious when deciding on further
easing and take its cues from incoming data, although sources
have told Reuters that policymakers are already starting to
debate whether rates have to go below neutral to stimulate the
economy.
Futures pricing shows that traders currently see rates
falling below 2% by June next year.
All of that has weighed on the euro, which is down
more than 3% for the month thus far and on track for its
steepest monthly decline since April 2022.
The common currency struggled to gain momentum on Thursday,
languishing near its weakest level since early July.
PMI figures for the UK and the U.S. will also be released
later in the day, although growth in those economies is likely
to fare much better than in their euro zone counterpart.
The International Monetary Fund said earlier this week that
the U.S. economy would continue to be the main driver for global
growth through the balance of this year and in 2025, bolstering
bullish bets on the dollar.
The U.S. currency has drawn further support from uncertainty
over the upcoming U.S. election and rising market bets on a
possible win by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.
Bears are also beginning to circle the Chinese yuan
, which is bound to feel the heat of bigger trade
tariffs in the event of a Trump victory.
In other news, Boeing ( BA ) factory workers voted on
Wednesday to reject a contract offer and continue a more than
five-week strike, in a blow to investor and management hopes of
a resolution to the acrimonious dispute.
The union vote against the deal, which offered a 35% rise in
wages over four years, reflects years of resentment among
workers who felt cheated in talks a decade ago and threatens to
deepen a financial crisis at the company.
Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:
- Euro zone, France, Germany flash PMIs (October)
- UK flash PMI (October)
- U.S. flash PMI (October)
- U.S. weekly jobless claims
- Various speeches from Bank of England, European Central
Bank and Federal Reserve policymakers