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MORNING BID EUROPE-Powell sparks optimism on rate cuts
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MORNING BID EUROPE-Powell sparks optimism on rate cuts
Jul 2, 2024 9:53 PM

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from

Ankur Banerjee

It was a risk-on session in Asia, with European bourses

poised for a similar start in the wake of comments by Fed Chair

Powell, with investors buoyed by reinforced expectations that

rate cuts are just around the corner in the U.S.

The fallout of the French election will remain in the

spotlight as opponents of France's National Rally stepped up

their bid to block the far-right party from power in Sunday's

run-off election.

The euro, which lurched to a two-week high on

Monday after RN did not score an outright majority, was steady

at $1.074475, while futures indicated the pan-European STOXX 600

index could move away from the two-month low it touched

on Tuesday.

Powell stating that the U.S. is back on a "disinflationary

path" was enough to put the dollar on the defensive, with

Treasury yields lower even though he cautioned that more data is

needed before policymakers could consider cutting rates.

""We just want to understand that the levels that we're

seeing are a true reading on what is actually happening with

underlying inflation," Powell said at a conference in Portugal

sponsored by the European Central Bank.

So, the Fed is still data-dependent, making the next few

inflation readings crucial in dictating where U.S. rates are

headed by the end of the year. Traders are clinging to as much

as two rate cuts this year from the Fed.

Minutes from the Fed's June meeting are due later in the day

and could offer clues on the central bank's thinking on U.S.

rates.

Meanwhile, the ECB remains in no hurry to lower borrowing

costs further after cutting rates last month, with data on

Tuesday showing the crucial services component in euro zone

inflation staying stubbornly high.

The ECB's Christine Lagarde and Philip Lane are due to take

the stage in Portugal and may have comments that could swing the

markets on rate expectations. Traders are currently pricing in

43 basis points of cuts this year from the ECB.

In corporate news, Tesla reported on Tuesday a

smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the

second quarter, as the electric car maker's price cuts and

incentives helped mitigate cooling demand. Although EV makers,

not just Tesla, still face a bumpy road ahead.

Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:

Economic events: June PMI for France, German, UK and euro

zone

Speakers: Fed's John Williams, ECB's Christine Lagarde and

Philip Lane at ECB forum in Portugal

(By Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Muralikumar

Anantharaman)

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