June 11 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European
and global markets from Wayne Cole.
So, apparently, they have the concept of a plan for a proposal
on a framework for a deal to break the latest U.S.-China trade
impasse. Which was only needed because President Trump sent that
tweet claiming Beijing had broken the old deal.
This deal now needs to be approved by Trump and Chairman Xi,
and then implemented. At least the Chinese side thought the
talks were "rational", which was a step forward.
Details were scant, though the U.S. team did claim that it
would resolve China's export restrictions on rare earth minerals
and magnets. What Beijing got in return was not yet clear.
Neither was it clear whether this truce would last any
longer than the last one, which might be why the early market
response was less than enthusiastic. U.S. and European stock
futures were all down between 0.2% and 0.6%, and Asian shares
modestly firmer.
There is still the small matter of whether the April 2
levies are actually legal, with a federal appeals court allowing
the tariffs to remain in effect while it reviews a lower court
decision blocking them.
The dollar and Treasuries were little changed as the U.S.
CPI looms later in the day and any upside surprise would fan
stagflationary fears, to the detriment of both markets.
Analysts assume lower energy prices will keep the headline
rise to 0.2%, while the core is seen up 0.3%. Attention will be
on whether tariffs show up in goods prices, though the full
impact is likely to appear from June onwards. Measures of
volatility suggest investors really aren't prepared for a high
number, so anything in line will be a relief.
Treasuries also have a 10-year auction to weather, with the
focus on the share taken by indirect bidders which include
foreign central banks. The latter took a hefty 71% of the May
sale, while primary dealers got just 8.9%. A repeat performance
would be warmly welcomed.
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
* ECB wage tracker. Appearances by ECB council members
Gabriel
Makhlouf; Piero Cipollone; Philip Lane and Claudia Buch;
policymaker Yiannis Stournaras
* British finance minister Rachel Reeves releases spending
review
* U.S. CPI data for May