A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from

Wayne Cole.

Is this the dog that didn't bark? That would be the question

from Sherlock Holmes fans given the utter lack of market

reaction to U.S. President Donald Trump's threatened doubling of

steel and aluminium tariffs to 50%.

That policy shift by tweet came late Friday after markets

shut, so there was some anticipation of an impact today, maybe a

drop in the Canadian dollar given the scale of their steel

exports to the U.S. Yet the loonie is actually firmer against a

broadly softer greenback, while European share futures are off a

shade and Wall St futures only modestly lower.

This could be the TACO meme in action as investors assume

'Trump always chickens out', though he's leaving it late with

the new higher tariff supposed to go into effect on Wednesday.

Then again, last minute cliffhangers work well on reality TV.

European Union negotiators weren't pleased with this latest

plot twist and threatened retaliation in return, while also

letting it be known that the court case decision against the

April 2 tariffs gave them added "leverage".

Neither does Trump's latest rhetorical attack on China seem

to be working, with Beijing sticking to its guns. If Trump is

counting on a call from China's President Xi Jinping to sort

things out, he might be waiting by the phone for a while.

It was also somewhat ironic hearing Treasury Secretary Scott

Bessent complaining that China was holding back vital products

from the United States, given it was the U.S. that started a

trade war with the specific aim of rebuffing Chinese imports.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaking in

South Korea said tariffs meant there were downside risks to

activity and unemployment, and upside risks to inflation. Yet he

was still optimistic about the chance of "good news" interest

rate cuts later this year, cementing his place as one of the

more dovish Fed officials.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak later Monday, though

limited to opening remarks to an international finance

conference.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

* UK house prices, European PMIs, U.S. ISM factory survey

* Fed Chair Powell gives opening remarks at the Federal

Reserve

Board's International Finance Division 75th Anniversary

Conference, while Chicago Fed Goolsbee and Dallas Fed Logan

appear in Q&A's