A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from
Kevin Buckland
Wall Street's mild bounce on the back of a tame CPI reading
did not provide much impetus for Asian markets, leaving European
investors with little cause for optimism.
One problem is that the inflation data, while offering some
relief from the run of discouraging indicators lately, won't
translate directly into a lower PCE price index - the Fed's
preferred gauge of price pressures - because the cooling came
mostly in services.
Another concern is that February's data doesn't fully
capture the impact of President Donald Trump's wave of tariffs.
And ultimately, the primary worry for markets is not
inflation, but growth.
On the subject of tariffs, Europe finds itself directly in
Trump's sights after the EU's threat of counter-measures was met
by a warning of reciprocal duties from the United States.
It remains to be seen whether Trump's approach to Europe
mirrors the ramp-up-and-reprieve strategy used for Canada and
Mexico, or the tax-and-then-tax-again model applied to China.
The good news is that, according to Germany's Kiel
Institute, only a "small fraction" of targeted products from the
EU are exported to the United States.
Meanwhile, Britain continues to keep a relatively low
profile, refraining from immediate tariff retaliation but
keeping all options open.
That may be why sterling continues its steady climb while
the euro is slipping back, albeit after a steeper ascent.
A majority of Americans believe Trump's economic policy has
been too erratic, and an even greater number expect higher
prices as a result.
Warnings from corporate America are also surfacing, with
airline Delta and retail giant Walmart ( WMT )
indicating that the unusually high level of economic uncertainty
will impact their profits.
A potential de-escalation in Trump's trade war could be sown
at home rather than due to tit-for-tat tariffs from major
trading partners. However, a more than 10% slide in the S&P 500
in just three weeks doesn't seem to be prompting a
reconsideration of U.S. policy.
Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:
- UK RICS housing survey (Feb)
- Sweden CPI (Feb)
- Euro area industrial production (Jan)
- US PPI (Feb), weekly jobless claims
(Editing by Jacqueline Wong)