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MORNING BID EUROPE-'Tariffs - use this version, please'
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MORNING BID EUROPE-'Tariffs - use this version, please'
Jul 31, 2025 10:03 PM

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from

Stella Qiu:

It is tariff deadline day and President Donald Trump

delivered by slapping fresh levies on imports from dozens of

countries, including those that do not have a trade deal yet.

Rates were set at 35% for Canada, 25% for India, 20% for

Taiwan and 19% for Thailand. Switzerland got a whopping 39% --

one of the steepest -- raising the question: what's Trump got

against the Swiss? Not buying enough American chocolate or

watches?

The big day comes after months of posturing, meetings,

delays and truces, which prompted some investors to question

what was a real threat and what was a bluff. Indeed, there is

still much to be resolved.

Arguably, most levies are lower than those threatened on

April 2, which back then sent markets into a tailspin. Plus the

big trade deals with Japan and the European Union have been

reached while talks with China and Mexico are still ongoing.

That is probably why market reaction this time has been much

more muted. Sure, most Asian shares fell, but only modestly.

South Korea is an exception, tumbling over 3%, in part due to

domestic tax cuts being rolled back.

Taiwan's president said the 20% levy is only temporary and

is expected to be reduced further when a deal is reached.

Wall Street and European shares did not seem to be too

bothered by the tariff news. EUROSTOXX 50 futures

slipped 0.3%. Both Nasdaq futures and S&P 500 futures

fell 0.2%, thanks to a 6% tumble in Amazon ( AMZN ) after

its earnings failed to meet lofty expectations.

Now, with the tariff news out of the way, euro zone flash

CPI is due later in the day and expectations are for a slight

easing to 1.9% in July from 2.0% in annual terms. Markets have

only priced in half a cut from the European Central Bank by

early next year.

And then it's all about waiting for payrolls, which will be

pivotal for hopes for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in

September, which is now priced at just 40%, way off 75% a month

ago.

Forecasts are centred on a 110,000 rise in July, while the

jobless rate likely ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%. Any upside

surprises could price out the chance of a move next month,

giving dollar bulls another reason to rally.

The greenback is headed for the best week - with a gain of

2.5% against its peers - in nearly three years, solidifying its

recent uptrend from a three-year low.

It has found support from a hawkish Fed that has held off

policy easing on tariff risks. And indeed, the Fed's preferred

gauge of inflation came in a tad hotter overnight, showing some

tariff impact.

Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:

-- Euro zone flash CPI for July

-- U.S. payrolls for July, ISM Manufacturing survey

Trying to keep up with the latest tariff news?

Our new daily news digest offers a rundown of the top

market-moving headlines impacting global trade. Sign up for

Tariff Watch here.

(Editing by Sam Holmes)

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