A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from
Stella Qiu:
It is tariff deadline day and President Donald Trump
delivered by slapping fresh levies on imports from dozens of
countries, including those that do not have a trade deal yet.
Rates were set at 35% for Canada, 25% for India, 20% for
Taiwan and 19% for Thailand. Switzerland got a whopping 39% --
one of the steepest -- raising the question: what's Trump got
against the Swiss? Not buying enough American chocolate or
watches?
The big day comes after months of posturing, meetings,
delays and truces, which prompted some investors to question
what was a real threat and what was a bluff. Indeed, there is
still much to be resolved.
Arguably, most levies are lower than those threatened on
April 2, which back then sent markets into a tailspin. Plus the
big trade deals with Japan and the European Union have been
reached while talks with China and Mexico are still ongoing.
That is probably why market reaction this time has been much
more muted. Sure, most Asian shares fell, but only modestly.
South Korea is an exception, tumbling over 3%, in part due to
domestic tax cuts being rolled back.
Taiwan's president said the 20% levy is only temporary and
is expected to be reduced further when a deal is reached.
Wall Street and European shares did not seem to be too
bothered by the tariff news. EUROSTOXX 50 futures
slipped 0.3%. Both Nasdaq futures and S&P 500 futures
fell 0.2%, thanks to a 6% tumble in Amazon ( AMZN ) after
its earnings failed to meet lofty expectations.
Now, with the tariff news out of the way, euro zone flash
CPI is due later in the day and expectations are for a slight
easing to 1.9% in July from 2.0% in annual terms. Markets have
only priced in half a cut from the European Central Bank by
early next year.
And then it's all about waiting for payrolls, which will be
pivotal for hopes for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in
September, which is now priced at just 40%, way off 75% a month
ago.
Forecasts are centred on a 110,000 rise in July, while the
jobless rate likely ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%. Any upside
surprises could price out the chance of a move next month,
giving dollar bulls another reason to rally.
The greenback is headed for the best week - with a gain of
2.5% against its peers - in nearly three years, solidifying its
recent uptrend from a three-year low.
It has found support from a hawkish Fed that has held off
policy easing on tariff risks. And indeed, the Fed's preferred
gauge of inflation came in a tad hotter overnight, showing some
tariff impact.
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
-- Euro zone flash CPI for July
-- U.S. payrolls for July, ISM Manufacturing survey
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(Editing by Sam Holmes)