A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from

Wayne Cole.

Markets kicked off the week with a day of consolidation

after their best week of the year, on expectations of a softer

than soft landing for the U.S. economy - or no landing at all

given many analysts expect it to keep growing between 2% and 3%.

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures are ahead

by 0.2% or so while the Nikkei is flat, having rallied

almost 9% last week. The euro is holding above $1.1000

and sterling hit its highest in a month at $1.2953.

Federal Reserve members Mary Daly and Austan Goolsbee were

out over the weekend to flag the possibility of easing in

September, while minutes due on Wednesday for the last policy

meeting should underline the dovish outlook.

Futures are 100% priced for a quarter-point cut, and 26% for

50 basis points, with much likely depending on whether the next

U.S. payrolls report shows the bounce that many anticipate.

On a cautionary note, Goldman Sachs noted the annual

re-analysis of payrolls is due on Wednesday and could show a

downward revision in the range of 600,000 to 1 million jobs,

although they argue this would overstate the weakness of the

labour market.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell caps the week with his Jackson Hole

speech on Friday and markets are clearly priced for a dovish

outlook, although not one that sanctions a half-point easing.

Markets are likewise fully priced for a Riksbank rate cut on

Tuesday, with the only debate being whether they go by 25 or 50

basis points.

Japan's consumer price report could revive talk of a Bank of

Japan hike, which had all but evaporated since the Nikkei's

recent swoon.

Markets have just 2 basis points of Japan tightening priced

in for October, although some analysts are still calling for a

rise of 25 basis points, to 0.5%.

On the U.S. politics front, the Democratic convention kicks

off on Monday with betting site PredictIt showing Vice President

Kamala Harris at 58 cents compared with 45 cents for Donald

Trump, a complete reversal from where it was before President

Joe Biden dropped out.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

- Riksbank starts two-day monetary policy meeting

- Finland's central bank governor and ECB governing council

member Olli Rehn speaks in New York

- Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks