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MORNING BID EUROPE-Three meetings down, bring on the rest
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MORNING BID EUROPE-Three meetings down, bring on the rest
Mar 20, 2024 10:56 PM

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom

Westbrook

Central bank meetings in Sydney, Washington and Tokyo

concluded this week with, respectively, few surprises, little

changed and a total but expected revolution in policy.

Next up are Norges Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss

National Bank, of which the latter is perhaps the most likely

purveyor of surprise given the strength of the franc.

On the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, SNB

chief Thomas Jordan told the Swiss press that the franc's

appreciation was posing challenges for exporters.

Analysis from the St Louis Fed shows the franc's broad

effective exchange rate is the highest in at least 30 years.

Markets price about a one-third chance of a rate cut, meaning it

would likely trigger a noteworthy reaction if it happened.

In Britain, inflation slowed in February and undershot

forecasts, including those from the BoE. That might be enough of

a signal that things are heading in the right direction to

settle the two hawks who voted for a hike last month.

Meanwhile investors were cheering the Fed's decision to

stick with projections for three rate cuts this year. Rates were

held steady, as expected, though price pressures persist.

Wall Street stock indexes strode to record highs, gold

prices spiked to a record in early Asia trade and equity

benchmarks in Tokyo and Taipei made record peaks.

The yen bounced and blowout job numbers in

Australia rallied the Aussie.

Beneath the hood of the Fed's projections, National

Australia Bank's Taylor Nugent noted long-term rate expectations

are creeping higher. The median long-term rate projection nudged

from 2.5% to 2.6%. But there are now seven policymakers with a

long-run projection of 3% or above, up from four in December.

Turkey's central bank also holds a policy meeting on

Thursday. It is expected to keep rates steady ... at 45%.

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

Policy: Norges Bank, BoE and SNB meetings

Earnings: BMW

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