A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom
Westbrook
Central bank meetings in Sydney, Washington and Tokyo
concluded this week with, respectively, few surprises, little
changed and a total but expected revolution in policy.
Next up are Norges Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss
National Bank, of which the latter is perhaps the most likely
purveyor of surprise given the strength of the franc.
On the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, SNB
chief Thomas Jordan told the Swiss press that the franc's
appreciation was posing challenges for exporters.
Analysis from the St Louis Fed shows the franc's broad
effective exchange rate is the highest in at least 30 years.
Markets price about a one-third chance of a rate cut, meaning it
would likely trigger a noteworthy reaction if it happened.
In Britain, inflation slowed in February and undershot
forecasts, including those from the BoE. That might be enough of
a signal that things are heading in the right direction to
settle the two hawks who voted for a hike last month.
Meanwhile investors were cheering the Fed's decision to
stick with projections for three rate cuts this year. Rates were
held steady, as expected, though price pressures persist.
Wall Street stock indexes strode to record highs, gold
prices spiked to a record in early Asia trade and equity
benchmarks in Tokyo and Taipei made record peaks.
The yen bounced and blowout job numbers in
Australia rallied the Aussie.
Beneath the hood of the Fed's projections, National
Australia Bank's Taylor Nugent noted long-term rate expectations
are creeping higher. The median long-term rate projection nudged
from 2.5% to 2.6%. But there are now seven policymakers with a
long-run projection of 3% or above, up from four in December.
Turkey's central bank also holds a policy meeting on
Thursday. It is expected to keep rates steady ... at 45%.
Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:
Policy: Norges Bank, BoE and SNB meetings
Earnings: BMW