A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from

Kevin Buckland

It could be taken as testament to the market's laser focus

on the health of the U.S. economy - and the threat from Donald

Trump's trade wars - that even the financial report card from AI

poster child and market bellwether Nvidia ( NVDA ) came and went with

barely a ripple.

Part of the reason, of course, is Nvidia's ( NVDA ) disclosures were

overall neither hot nor cold: forecasts were strong but not

sensational; gross margins declined, but with the promise of

rising by mid-year.

The most important takeaway was demand for the high-power,

high-priced computing that Nvidia ( NVDA ) is known for is alive and

well, despite what had initially appeared as a threat to the

Western business model from China's ostensibly lower-cost AI

competitor, DeepSeek.

In Asia, Nvidia's ( NVDA ) influence was barely felt anywhere in the

region, with tech shares - and the stock indexes they are part

of - lacking uniform direction.

Instead, the main focus was elsewhere. Bond yields and the

dollar had more of a story to tell, lifting off recent lows as

traders assessed the latest, contradictory, rumblings on tariffs

from Washington, and what it all might mean for the economy and

the path for Fed policy.

Trump appeared to give Canada and Mexico another one-month

stay of execution over 25% tariffs, shifting the deadline to

April 2 - only for a White House official to try and roll that

back to the earlier date of March 4. What was clear though is

that Europe is in POTUS's crosshairs, as Trump floated a

"reciprocal" levy of 25% "on cars, and all of the things" that

will soon be revealed.

Trump's trade war, while certainly more damaging to its

targets, will also inflict pain on the United States. And the

U.S. economy is not looking nearly as robust as it did just

weeks earlier, following a run of soft data, compounded by

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments this week that

things are "brittle beneath" the surface.

Traders have moved from pricing just one quarter-point Fed

cut this year to two, with the first by July and the second as

early as October, according to LSEG data.

Investors will look to GDP data due on Thursday for further

signs of a slowdown, while the Fed's preferred inflation gauge,

the PCE deflator, is due on Friday.

Europe has quite a lot of data to digest on Thursday,

including jobs figures from Germany, producer prices from

France, and consumer inflation in Spain. Outside the bloc,

Switzerland reports GDP.

The ECB will kick off the next round of central bank

meetings in a week from now, with markets currently priced for a

quarter-point cut then, and another two by September.

However, discussions within the central bank centre on how

much further rates really need to fall considering inflation is

still a bit too high and the economy is struggling.

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

-US GDP (Q4), durable goods orders (Jan)

-France producer prices (Jan), Spain CPI (Feb), Germany

jobs data (Feb)

-Switzerland GDP (Q4)