A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from
Rocky Swift
With markets given another reprieve from a global trade war,
attention refocuses on more quotidian cues, like economic data
and corporate earnings.
Six weeks into the turmoil spurred by U.S. President Donald
Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs, the recurring lessons seem to
be: wait for the details and buy the dip.
The China and U.S. rapprochement, resulting in a suspension
of the worst tariffs between the world's two biggest economies
for 90 days, was better than expected, and reverberated in Asian
equity markets with strong gains in Japan after a rally in the
United States.
And while a Trump social media post on Sunday about high
U.S. drug prices caused a massive selloff in Japanese pharma
shares on Monday, the actual executive order puts the bullseye
more on cheaper drugs overseas, prompting a bounce back in
healthcare stocks on the Nikkei.
Keep an eye on the European pharma stock index,
which has outperformed the broader index so far this
year.
Trump's
comments about a pricey "fat shot drug", presumably speaking
of injectable obesity treatments from Novo Nordisk
and Eli Lilly ( LLY ), could mean pressure for cost cuts in the
U.S. or increases in Europe.
Or both. Comments from Bayer AG after
first-quarter results today may give a read on how the German
healthcare giant plans to navigate the uncertain road ahead.
The U.S. dollar was slightly weaker in Asia, but still held
most of its gains against the yen, euro and Swiss franc after
the trade truce was announced.
The policy whipsaw and doubt about what lies after the next
three months remain as drags on investment sentiment. Equity
futures point to a muted open in Europe and a backslide in the
U.S.
Analysts are expecting to see a recovery in German investor
sentiment when the ZEW economic research institute releases its
data for May today, after tariff concerns sent morale to the
lowest since the start of the Ukraine war.
In the U.S., Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will provide
a signal about the timing of potential rate cuts by the U.S.
Federal Reserve. Traders are pricing in 57 basis points of cuts
this year, down from over 100 basis points in mid-April.
Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:
- UK employment (March)
- BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, chief economist Huw Pill speak
at separate events
- Germany ZEW business sentiment (May)
- U.S. CPI inflation (April)
- U.S. earnings: Under Armour ( UAA ), Venture Global ( VG )
- European earnings: Bayer, On Holding
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(Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)