July 23 (Reuters) -

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets

There was a familiar playbook in response to Alphabet's earnings beat and capital expenditure boost overnight - its stock fell and chip stocks rose.

The hyperscaler posted more than 80% growth in its key cloud business, beating the Street, but raised its capex estimates yet again - with AI-linked investments this year now set to top $200 billion.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on how the sheer scale of the U.S. K-shaped economy explains its resilience.

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast, where we discuss Alphabet's soaring AI bill and the fresh inflation headache facing the ECB.

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MAGNIFICENT CASH BURN

Partly on some disquiet about delays in its latest Gemini AI model, as well as the rising cash burn, markets shrugged at the headlines and knocked Alphabet's stock down 3% ahead of today's bell.

Lapping up the higher spend, however, chip-heavy South Korean stocks jumped more than 4% on Thursday. But it wasn't all good news in the chip world either, with Europe's STMicroelectronics dropping 14% first thing on a slight miss in its earnings.

Stateside, Tesla stock also flubbed and lost 4% on Wednesday after it reported its first negative free cash flow in over two years. Intel's earnings are due out later today, a test for the U.S. chipmaking giant as its shares remain up nearly three times so far this year, even after tumbling from a record high in late June.

Wall Street futures were down before the bell on Thursday, while European shares also edged lower as tech stocks there slipped, led by chipmaker STMicro after its below-expectations results.

More broadly, oil climbed further toward $98 per barrel overnight amid the raging conflict in the Gulf and the new shipping hiatus in the Red Sea, as Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis targeted Saudi oil tankers and shipping data showed tankers changing course.

The resurgent oil prices are pressuring oil and natural gas futures, as well as interest rate and bond markets in turn. Short-term U.S. Treasury yields rose to their highest in around 17 months on Thursday.

With the European Central Bank meeting today, the inflation impact from spiraling natural gas prices as winter storage starts to get rebuilt will mean the signals are likely to be hawkish.

Futures markets now price two ECB hikes by year-end and two Federal Reserve hikes within nine months.

Chart of the day

Brent crude oil surged above $98 a barrel on Thursday for the first time in six weeks as the raging Iran conflict escalated to the Red Sea and its shipping, putting the psychological $100 marker in the crosshairs again.

There were few signs of any talks or mediation in the conflict, with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying U.S. military policy towards Iran would now be a "head for an eye".

The oil price move and rise in long-term crude futures underscores the wild volatility in energy prices since the Iran war began almost five months ago, while compounding inflation worries in interest rate markets and among central banks.

The European Central Bank is due to decide on policy later today, amid an alarming rise in natural gas prices as the winter re-stocking season gets underway.

Today's events to watch

-- ECB interest rate decision (8:15 a.m. EDT)

-- U.S. weekly jobless claims (8:30 a.m. EDT), 10-year TIPS auction (1 p.m. EDT)

-- U.S. corporate earnings: Intel, Blackstone, T-Mobile

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