April 27 (Reuters) -

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets

The weekend brought us stalemate in Iran, resurgent oil prices, and a shooting close to a Washington press dinner attended by President Donald Trump and his officials - yet tech stocks keep rising regardless.

The dissonance between the AI boom and rancorous geopolitics looks set to continue this week. Companies representing some 44% of the S&P 500's market cap will report earnings in the coming days, with little sign so far of any let-up in the AI arms race around the world.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast, where I unpack the busy week ahead. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.

OIL AND CHIPS

Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Alphabet and Amazon will all report earnings this week, just as chipmakers' stocks have been rocketing on demand for AI components and equipment. Intel's staggering advance to record highs is the story of the month in many ways.

But it's not clear how markets will receive signs of ever higher capex from hyperscalers and big tech firms - most recently Tesla, which last week lifted its 2026 capex plan to more than $25 billion.

Unease may eventually build, but for now tech stocks are still on a tear, with chipmakers leading Asian indexes to fresh record highs on Monday. That's after Wall Street hit record peaks on Friday too, though S&P 500 futures were flat before the bell on Monday. European shares were muted after the open.

Back in macro markets, oil keeps pushing higher, with Brent crude touching a three-week high of $108 per barrel. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still at a crawl, and no new peace talks have been scheduled so far, though Pakistani efforts to broker discussions continue.

Long-term energy futures are also rising, with Goldman Sachs raising its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $90/bbl.

Meantime, the Fed and other major G7 central banks are all set to meet this week, with the Bank of Japan being the first to deliver its rate decision on Tuesday. None are expected to move interest rates this week as they continue to assess how energy prices are impacting inflation outlooks.

But the Fed's meeting will be noteworthy as it's likely to be the last for Jerome Powell as chair. Friday's news that the Department of Justice was dropping its criminal probe into Powell has cleared the way for the Senate confirmation of chair nominee Kevin Warsh. Forward guidance from Powell may now pack much less of a punch than it has for the last eight years.

Otherwise, the week will bring some fresh inflation prints from around the world, with U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, the Fed's preferred gauge, due on Thursday, alongside flash data from the euro zone.

Chart of the day

U.S. oil exports have soared in recent weeks, helping to temper the acute energy supply shock emanating from the Middle East. Total U.S. oil exports this month hit an all-time high of 12.9 million barrels per day, of which refined products accounted for over 60%, according to Energy Information Administration data.

Seaborne U.S. oil exports are set to climb to a record 9.6 million bpd in April, with flows to Asia nearly doubling from pre-war levels to 2.5 million bpd, according to data analytics firm Kpler. The surge has helped cushion Asian economies, among the most exposed to Gulf supply losses, writes ROI Energy Columnist Ron Bousso.

Today's events to watch

* U.S. 2-year and 5-year note auctions (1 p.m. EDT)

* Bank of Japan begins monetary policy meeting

* UK's King Charles III begins four-day U.S. state visit

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