March 10 -

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets

The fog of war remains thick. Crude oil prices have become wildly volatile this week, with intraday swings exceeding $30 per barrel - some of the biggest one-day moves on record.

After soaring as high as $120 early Monday - the highest in four years - oil prices then slumped back below $100 later in the day after President Trump once again teased the prospect of a short-lived conflict with Iran, saying the war was "very complete".

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on why inflation isn't the only risk keeping central bankers up at night as the conflict in Iran continues.

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast where I discuss how headline-driven oil swings are rewiring stocks, bonds and rate expectations.

Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.

OIL'S COMBUSTIBLE CALM

Trump's apparent about-face on Monday not only calmed oil prices but also the complex of world stocks and bonds that had shivered after oil's triple-digit price spike. Wall Street stocks closed up on Monday, while on Tuesday South Korea's KOSPI index regained nearly 6% and Japan's Nikkei climbed nearly 3%.

Meantime, U.S. Treasury yields tumbled and the dollar took a breather on Tuesday, steadying against major currencies, helping gold edge up in turn. U.S. stock futures were up ahead of the bell, having remained remarkably calm amid yesterday's tumult.

Many will say this is the TACO ("Trump always chickens out") trade par excellence, but there are few signs that Trump's optimistic turn is playing out on the ground, with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps still asserting that no oil will be exported as long as U.S.-Israeli attacks continued.

Responding to that over social media, Trump threatened further retaliation against Iran if it continued to disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. So, for now, the tit-for-tat looks set to continue.

Through all of this, oil prices held above $90 per barrel - a level that would have seemed frightening only last month. And pass-through to fuel costs is already being felt in the U.S., where a comfortable majority of Americans now believe prices will worsen over the next year.

In the background, G7 finance ministers on Monday mulled a possible joint release of their oil reserves to calm the horses, though they stopped short of doing so now, with a G7 official telling Reuters that the decision was "just about timing".

Elsewhere, China reported a spectacular surge in its trade surplus for the first two months of the year, with exports up more than 20% year-on-year. While that certainly supports its new growth target of just under 5% and comes despite falling bilateral trade with the U.S., it also predates this month's spike in oil prices.

Later in the day, after the bell, Oracle is set to report earnings, with traders likely to be on the lookout for signs of a payoff from spiralling capex as it ploughs billions into AI data center expansion.

Chart of the day

China roared into 2026 with exports far outstripping forecasts, fuelled by red-hot electronics demand, putting the economy on track to top last year's record $1.2 trillion trade surplus, despite the persistent drop in bilateral trade with the United States.

Although the data preceded this month's energy and shipping shock from the war in Iran, outbound shipments from ‌the world's second-largest economy grew 21.8% in U.S. dollar terms in the January-February period - up sharply from the 6.6% increase recorded in December and blowing past the median forecast of 7.1% in a Reuters poll.

Today's events to watch

* U.S. February existing home sales (10:00 AM EST)

* U.S. 3-year note auction

* U.S. corporate earnings: Oracle, Domino's Pizza

Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, and you can follow us on LinkedIn and X.

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.