Morning Bid U.S.

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Financial Industry and Financial Markets

In my Friday newsletters, I'll now offer you an overview of the day's market-moving news, a quick glimpse into some top events to watch out for next week, and a list of some stories you may have missed amid all the market ructions.

Today's Market Minute

* Trump has suspended the 25% tariffs he had imposed thisweek on most goods from Canada and Mexico, sowing more confusionin already whipsawed markets and fanning worries about inflationand growth. * Justin Trudeau says the U.S. tariff war is going to dragon for the foreseeable future. U.S. Treasury Secretary ScottBessent says the Canadian premier is a 'numbskull'. * Trump has signed an executive order to establish astrategic bitcoin reserve, but the crypto world isn't wowed. * European leaders have agreed to hike their defencespending and to stand by Ukraine in a world upended by Trump'sreversal of U.S. policies. * And finally, the market will get a look at the firstmonthly non-farm payrolls report under Trump's watch.   Wall St turns to jobs picture

On or off? Partial or universal? Higher or lower? Business and markets have no clear idea what U.S. import tariffs are going to be, a gnawing uncertainty about trade and prices that could potentially prove as corrosive as the tariffs themselves.

Attention now turns squarely to the labor market on Friday with the release of February's U.S. payrolls report. 

Markets are already on edge following Thursday's news that planned U.S. layoffs soared last month to the highest point since the pandemic recession in 2020, even though weekly jobless claims fell unexpectedly. Meanwhile, private sector jobs in February rose only about half the amount forecast, based on the ADP report released earlier this week.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve's real time 'GDPNow' model is still tracking a contraction for the economy of 2.4% for the first quarter, though the forecast did improve slightly in recent days.  

While chipmaker Broadcom's post-bell surge on its latest results helped steady U.S. stock futures early on Friday, Wall Street stocks have recorded another rough week. 

Heavy losses on Thursday saw the S&P 500 clock its biggest daily loss of the year so far, as it hit its lowest point since before U.S. President Donald Trump's was re-elected on November 5. And for chart-watchers, the index fell below its closely-watched 200 day moving average. 

The tech-heavy Nasdaq is now in what's known as correction territory, having recoiled more than 10% from its December record high. Bitcoin fell back again, with traders disappointed by Trump's latest plans for a crypto reserve.   

Global shares fell broadly on Friday too, following Wall Street's lead amid U.S. trade and recession fears.

But even after the latest European Central Bank interest rate cut on Thursday, the euro continued its march higher against the ailing dollar, with European leaders agreeing on a 150 billion euro defense fund overnight to add to Germany's seismic fiscal stimulus plans announced earlier in the week.

The euro is now on course for its best week against the dollar in 16 years. 

Today's key chart

Layoffs announced by U.S. employers jumped to levels not seen since the last two recessions amid mass federal government job cuts, canceled contracts and fears of trade wars. Global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said planned job cuts vaulted 245% month-over-month to 172,017 in February, the highest level since July 2020 when the economy was in the grips of the COVID-19 pandemic and the highest February total since the Great Recession 16 years ago.

Today's events to watch

* U.S. February employment report, January consumer credit;Canada February employment report; Mexico February inflation * Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Fed Board GovernorAdriana Kugler, New York Fed President John Williams and AtlantaFed boss Raphael Bostic all speak; European Central BankPresident Christine Lagarde speaks; Bank of England policymakerCatherine Mann speaksTop events to watch for next week

* For an overview of what to watch out for next week, checkout: Take Five: Change is in the air. * February's U.S. consumer price inflation report next weekcomes too early to capture the impact of the latest tariffhikes. But the extent to which inflation remains 'hot' and mayget aggravated further by the tariffs will be a key debate.Inflation proved politically toxic for the previousadministration of Joe Biden, and Trump's early approval ratingon cost of living issues is already poor.  * Europe's finance ministers meet next week to discuss themomentous turn in the continent's security and fiscal picture.Stories away from major macro developments that you might have missed this week:    

1. How ECB dodged a payment disaster in 10 hours of techmeltdown    2. US mulls plan to disrupt Iran's oil by halting vessels atsea  3. Trump-Zelenskiy clash exposes divisions in Europe'srising far right 4. Shipping firms pull back from Hong Kong to skirtU.S.-China risks  5. Republican officials rethink BlackRock bans after Panamaport deal

(By Mike Dolan, editing by Anna Szymanski; [email protected])