Sept 13 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S.

and global markets by Amanda Cooper.

What a difference a day makes. Just 24 hours ago, investors

were coming to terms with the idea that a half-point rate cut

next week from the Federal Reserve was unlikely and a

quarter-point drop was much more in line with a soft-landing

scenario.

A couple of articles by closely followed Fed correspondents

in the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal overnight,

along with comments from influential former Fed official Bill

Dudley, have been enough to flip those assumptions on their

head. It's now pretty much 50/50 as to whether the Fed goes 25

basis points or 50 on Sept. 18.

This 180-switch hasn't puffed up U.S. stock futures or given

bitcoin a bid so far, but rather has pushed gold to yet another

record high above $2,570 an ounce.

Gold has gained nearly 25% in value this year, fuelled by a

heady cocktail of the prospect of lower U.S. interest rates,

falling inflation, a weaker dollar and a highly volatile

geopolitical backdrop.

Investors are currently sitting on one of their largest

bullish positions in gold futures on record. Weekly data from

the U.S. markets regulator shows non-commercial investors - a

category that can include individual investors, some hedge funds

and financial institutions - hold 287,558 gold futures

contracts, worth around $73 billion based on the current spot

price.

CENTRAL BANKS STILL ADDING GOLD

It hasn't just been skittish investors adding to their

rainy-day bullion holdings either. Central banks around the

world, which tend to be in it for long-term, are still adding

gold to their reserves at breakneck speed following 2023's

splurge - the second highest for the official sector on record.

Exchange-traded funds have recorded positive inflows for

four straight months to the end of August after years of almost

unmitigated outflows.

Because gold does not bear any interest of its own, it can

compete more effectively for investor cash when U.S. rates are

falling. In fact, in five out of the last seven Fed easing

cycles going back to 1982, gold has rallied in the six months

following the first cut.

The possible dull element in this otherwise glittery picture

is the impact of an seemingly unstoppable rally on actual

consumers of gold. Retail investors, jewellers and industrial

users are highly price sensitive.

But for now, particularly with a juicy half-point cut in the

offing from the Fed now believed to be more likely, gold is

retaining its shine.

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S.

markets later on Friday:

* August import/export prices

* University of Michigan Sept preliminary consumer sentiment