04:23 PM EDT, 04/15/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Beyond "elevated" geopolitical uncertainty, National Bank said Canada's near-term policy rate path "remains clouded by truly extraordinary population growth (and its attendant pressure on shelter inflation)". More generally, National Bank suspects the Bank of Canada may wish to avoid a repeat of spring 2023, when borrowing rates eased on emboldened rate cut expectations, only to re-ignite interest-sensitive demand and upside inflation risks. On balance, National said its official forecast maintains 75 bps of BoC rate cuts in calendar 2024, the first move commencing in July. But it added: "We nonetheless concede that the BoC could opt for a June cut should upcoming data (most notably CPI) cooperate sufficiently. Just like central bankers then, our rate forecast remains data dependent."